Finger at China link with rebels - Fear of breakthrough with nscn-im led to strike: Sources

A delegation of NSCN-IM led by Thuingaleng Muivah (second from
left) and Isak Chishi Swu (third from left) with former Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh in New Delhi in December 2004. File picture

Radhika Ramaseshan, TT, New Delhi, June 12: A "breakthrough" is expected in the Centre's talks with Nagaland's top insurgent group, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (Isak-Muivah), political sources in the Narendra Modi government have said.

They refused to reveal much about the purported understanding but claimed that the June 4 ambush of the army by the group's principal rival, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang), was one of its indirect fallouts.

They said S.S. Khaplang had launched the attack that killed 18 soldiers in Manipur because he feared becoming "irrelevant" if and when the Isak-Muivah group struck a deal with the Centre.

According to the sources, Thuingaleng Muivah has been willing to consider the government's offer of more autonomy for the Naga areas of Manipur, with a possible financial arrangement between the Centre and an autonomous district council that bypasses the Manipur government.

Chuba Ozukum President of Naga Hoho and his team
met Prime Minister Modi on Friday

For Muivah and his comrade Isak Chishi Swu, the demand for a "Greater Nagaland" - made up of the existing state of Nagaland and parts of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur - has historically been non-negotiable. Past governments had recognised how untenable the demand was, given that some of the bloodiest conflicts in the Northeast had been waged over disputed state borders. The Modi establishment shares this perception.

The sources said the Centre had made up its mind not to talk to Khaplang - and to target his cadres at their camps inside Myanmar - weeks before the June 4 strike.

They said the Centre took the decision after Khaplang unilaterally announced in late March that he was ending the ceasefire with New Delhi, citing what the government dubs an "unsubstantiated" report in a Northeast magazine.

"The report quoted anonymous sources as saying the Union home ministry was no longer interested in continuing with the ceasefire, but that was false," a source stressed.

Shortly afterwards, Khaplang's cadres launched targeted attacks on army outposts on the India-Myanmar border.

It was then, the sources said, that a decision was taken to direct the military to retaliate and "contain" Khaplang's insurgents at an "appropriate" time. The foreign ministry and the foreign secretary were given the nodal responsibility to plan and coordinate for the operation.

Foreign secretary S. Jaishankar is said to have insisted from day one that the Myanmar establishment be taken into confidence, and Prime Minister Modi agreed.

According to information reaching the government, Khaplang commands an armed cadre of 400.

In May, the foreign secretary visited Myanmar for a couple of days, the sources said, adding that the army, Intelligence Bureau and Research and Analysis Wing were kept in the loop all along.

New Delhi's lone concern, they said, was that there should be no collateral damage if and when the military acted.

Asked if the worst was over, sources said the Khaplang group's "threat of retaliation" was real.

Compounding the Centre's concern about counter-violence in the Northeast are suspicions that China is patronising Khaplang as well as Paresh Barua, leader of the Ulfa (Independent) militant group who is holed up in Myanmar's forests.

The sources stressed that far from being a message to Pakistan, the Myanmar border operation should be seen as a signal to China to "stop meddling in India's internal security issues".

NSCN-K ban: The Centre is in the "process" of reimposing the ban on the NSCN (Khaplang) in the wake of the outfit abrogating the ceasefire and following it up with attacks on security forces.

A source in the Union home ministry said, "There is a proposal (to ban the outfit) and the process is on." He said it was only "natural" that the outfit should be banned after it abrogated the ceasefire and carried out attacks on security forces.

The NSCN (K) has killed at least 30 security personnel in Manipur and Nagaland in the past couple of months after withdrawing from the 14-year-old truce with the Centre in March-end.