Will Modi as PM spur the Indian growth?

Suresh Menon, theindianrepublic, Saturday, 22 March 2014: In 1939, when Winston Churchill was asked to predict the future course of action Russia would embark on, offered a legendary quip: “Russia…is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”. Now, 75 years have passed and as April 2014 approaches, India, the world’s largest democracy, and one which used to lie under Churchill’s thumb once upon a time, is readying itself for arguably the most important national election in its brief history as a democracy.

The man who looks most favored to win the coveted Prime Ministerial seat and on whom most of the pre-election coverage has been primarily centered on is someone whom Churchill’s Russian reference would apply very aptly. In fact, many people feel compelled to use the same words and more to describe the new ‘messiah’ in Indian politics. Narendra Modi, the man who has so effectively gripped Indian political consciousness for the past decade and more, is, to put it prosaically, ”…a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, warped by the media”.

Will he or won’t he? This question has given sleepless nights to political analysts, economists and academicians alike, and pertains to Modi’s claim to being the one man army who can steer India back to its rightful place in the 21st century, that of being the fastest growing economy in the world and the new global superpower. Of course to the cynics and the critics, of which admittedly there are many, this question could pertain to his track-record as well, particularly the oft-sounded genocidal aspect of it.

Is he the new political demigod his supporters fanatically proclaim him to be or a newer breed of devil in the Indian political narrative’s constant tussle with the deep blue scam-filled sea? Only time will answer that one, and that time will also depend on whether Modi makes it to that highest echelon of Indian politics.

To assess Modi without referring to the media is as big a challenge as referring to Modi without assessing the media – so irrevocably have the two tangled and so warped has been the tale. This article seeks neither to praise Modi nor to bury him, rather to examine a few credentials, a few pointers as to whether the man can indeed deliver on his promises.

For those who are weary of political promises, and understandably, there is a substantial number in that club, Modi’s inspiring and impassioned rhetoric just won’t do. They need action. And the only way to assess Modi on his actions is by looking at the past and the influence he has had on Gujarat ever since he has been at the helm. Mind you, winning three consecutive terms is no mean feat, that too after being held responsible for threatening and closing off an entire community, which forms a double-digit electorate in the state.

Experience in Gujarat

Godhra happened right at the very beginning of his first tenure. Even before that, he had already made a name for himself with the able administrative skills he showcased while dealing with the aftermath of the Bhuj earthquake, despite coming into office almost nine months after it had struck. These two major events, which can rattle even the most seasoned politicians, were handled adroitly enough to ensure victory in two successive elections. If that doesn’t show capability at least in the Indian context, that too in the 21st century, nothing does.

As for economic progress, unlike the lower and not so well-to-do masses, appeasing the significantly young and naive proportions amidst the Indian upper and middle classes is only possible by showing visible signs of development. Modi has fared quite well in that regard if a well-connected and efficiently maintained road network, construction of ports, provision of non-stop electricity, job creation and lack of graft can be considered as markers of visibility.

His courting of the Tatas to Gujarat from West Bengal is an acclaimed story in itself as to how to succeed at national-level politics, and his regular cozying up to reputed industry giants has only earned him vital brownie points within a constituency in whose fickle hands rests the foundations of the Indian economy. There is of course the Vibrant Gujarat summit held every two years, criticized by some for being a show of extreme sycophancy and excessive overindulgence, but it has to be remembered Gujarat hasn’t earned its ‘Most Investor Friendly State’ tag without strategic efforts.

Learning from State Administration: A National Dream?

If all this has augured well for Gujarat since 2001, there is no reason it cannot augur well for the whole of India from 2014. No one is saying that running Gujarat is akin to running India, and Modi cannot possibly put forward the same agendas or parameters for both. There would be political complications that he may have to carefully tread through first, of forming partnerships and coalitions while appeasing the fussy political powers that may hold diametrically opposite views in both India’s bigger and smaller states, as also the many other constituencies he has to indulge. However, one glance through the political contenders aspiring to be Prime Minister will surely make NaMo breathe easy. There is no other politician worth the salt, period.

Attaining the Prime Ministerial post is no cakewalk, but Narendra Modi’s path has been ridden with more thorns than roses and the fact that he has gotten this far, a scenario which no one could imagine ten years back, is testimony to not just the self-destruction mode enveloping the current rulers at the Centre, but to Modi’s own sheer force of will and shrewd publicity building.

In the current Indian political scenario, he can almost be treated as a star. He has developed a dedicated cult following for being a proud brahmachari bachelor, a post-graduate in political science, a decisive ‘iron fist’ in a profession of showboaters, who doesn’t pamper or pander without good reason and for being that rare Indian politician with an untainted corruption record.

He has single-handedly rejuvenated the chances of an ageing and largely clueless NDA, made sure he has adroitly hit the Congress where it hurts, both wooed as well as willfully maneuvered the powerful RSS, taken nationwide political partnership building tours, hit all the right notes while impressing students from India’s top colleges with smart speeches, made the UK relent and go back on their no-trading policy with Gujarat, all the while steadily and stealthily adding more and more subscribers to his voter-base. If he can continue to generate so much hype, surely he must be worth it as well, goes the logic.

The Godhra riots may continue to remain the perennial stick to beat him with, his no-nonsense and all-action style might continue to put those seeking sugar-coated sound bites off as well as upset the Indian media, his style of governance may distress the left-tilters, while his fiery and provocative speeches may at times offend those given to the finer sensibilities in political life. Narendra Modi has battled through all these criticisms and more.

He has successfully led Gujarat for more than twelve years now, a state which holds only 5% of India’s population, but contributes more than triple of that to its economy. As for the community, which he is said to have marginalized and neglected? Muslims have seen poverty rates fall from 40% to almost 10% in the last two decades in the state. Today, Muslims in Gujarat are economically better off than in other states. A state which saw regular riots and curfews since the day of its inception hasn’t seen one since Godhra, a time period of more than 12 years.

Modi appeals to a lot of raw Indian sentiments in the way he has risen to the top, by being the anti-hero in a play almost always orchestrated by the Nehru-Gandhi family, an outsider in a system teeming with widespread nepotism, by being the son of a chaiwala and working as one himself before eventually reaching where he has. As Omar Abdullah, not generally known as one of Modi’s admirers, probably represented the views of a majority of Indian liberals when he said, “…Modi has a lot of negatives, but his humble origins are a positive some of us can’t claim”.

In India, the secular question matters. But at this point of time, the economic question matters more. Modi may have his doubters and critics on the former question, but in the matter of the latter, he has no peers. India Inc backs him to the hilt, so do the menial workers. The general perception of Modi amongst majority of the Indian  voters is, right now he is the crafty administrator that India indisputably needs and the economic architect it certainly deserves.

Narendra Modi – the game changer!

Investors and industrialists believe that Modi is the only leader who can address the many challenges our economy is currently facing and also everything for the better. A recent Goldman Sach’s research indicates that Modi definitely has the capability to spur the Indian economy. According to Sonam Udasi, Head of Research at IDBI, capital goods, power, infrastructure and banking are some of the sectors that will witness significant growth, if Modi comes to power.

Industry analysts foresee his government formulating the right policies required to lift economic growth, address unemployment, alienate poverty and revive large infrastructure projects that are currently on hold. In the development and economic vision for India outlined by him recently, Modi has promised a number of measures from massive urbanization and price control to women’s empowerment and Dalit welfare, if he becomes India’s next Prime Minister.

His vision includes the creation of 100 new, so-called smart cities as well as bringing premier institutes such as the IIMs, IITs and AIIMS to every state coupled with job creation. On the agricultural front, Modi has promised a unique development model for farmers aimed at stabilizing prices, creating national agricultural markets and streamlining exports and imports.

He believes in crafting healthy governance where honesty, transparency, effective actions prevails, leading to steady inflow of investments. Furthermore, Modi sees urbanization as an opportunity rather than a challenge.  Modi means business, and his development-plus model for brand India will focus on 5Ts – talent, tradition, tourism, trade and technology.

Apart from giving a major boost to the economy, his governance promises to build a healthy society with participation from all communities, through education to all as well as by assuring protection to poor and dalits from exploitation and ensuring women safety. Furthermore, Modi’s development model aims to create a conducive business environment to lure foreign investors by building good infrastructure, gas grids, water grids, linking rivers, national optical fibre networks, among others. Introduction of high-speed bullet train network running across India is also there as part of modernization of the Indian Railways.

In anticipation of the BJP-led NDA coming to power and Modi becoming India’s next Prime Minister, of late the Indian rupee has started strengthening against the dollar and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex as well as the National Stock Exchange’s benchmark index Nifty have started rising. And Citigroup has predicted that Indian rupee may surge 35% to Rs 40 per dollar, if Modi becomes Prime Minister.

So, let us now come back to the crucial question – Can Modi really spur the Indian economy? Taking into account Modi’s past achievements and looking at the latest economic, stock market and forex trends, the answer is an emphatic yes. So the question shouldn’t be about whether he can do it, but in how much time. In the race with the Amul baby, the chaiwala looks set to be the one who will drive the Indian cash cow for a considerable number of years in future. And quite surprisingly, this charismatic politician does have the track record to back it up.

The author is a journalist and an independent researcher based in Kerala.