West Bengal – Mamata Banerjee Goes Alone And Thinks Big

Sunil Garodia, theindianrepublic, 12 March 2014: The Trinamool Congress and Mamata Banerjee have been part of both the NDA and the UPA at different times, underscoring the fact that there are no permanent foes or allies in politics. But ahead of the 2014 elections, Banerjee has been spewing venom on both the groupings. She cannot be in the so called Third Front as the bête noire of her party, the CPI (M), is the chief mover and shaker there (although with the breakdown of the AIDMK-Left alliance in Tamil Nadu, the Third Front itself has weakened considerably). So what does she do? She gets Anna Hazare to endorse her and plans to get 100 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha. She plans to go it alone.

TMC swept to power in West Bengal promising change, or poriborton. Since then, it has been victorious in all the polls held in the state, decimating the communists to such an extent that they have forgotten their protesting ways and have given TMC a free run of the state. The way the communists have kept quiet in the face of the huge Sharada chit fund scam in the state has surprised many observers. Even after considering the stranglehold TMC has on state politics, opinion polls are giving it 22 to 26 seats out of 42 in Bengal. TMC does not have a presence elsewhere. So where does the figure of hundred prop up from?

In the election season, a lot of posturing and chest thumping goes on. This strategy has to be seen as posturing by Banerjee. She has calculated and knows that her party has a bright chance of emerging as the third largest party after the BJP and the Congress. She knows that that will give her much elbow room and bargaining power in case of a hung parliament. She is a maverick and it is difficult to predict which way she will go. But it is certain that she will not support the NDA.

The reason for saying this is that she has consciously cultivated the minority community in West Bengal, announcing sops like a monthly payment to imams of mosques, announcing several concessions for Haj pilgrims and opening the swank Aliah University for Muslim students. The minority community forms a huge vote bank in the state and its vote can prove decisive in at least a dozen constituencies. She once made the mistake of alienating the community by joining the NDA. She will not repeat that mistake despite Narendra Modi saying good things about her in his Kolkata rally. In a recent interview, when asked how she responds to Modi liking her, she bluntly said “maybe, but I don’t like him.”

Going it alone suits her fine for she knows that the BJP does not have a base in the state. Some voters will vote for it, but that will be at the cost of division of opposition votes. She has not aligned with any grouping as her party will contest all seats. Alignment would have meant leaving seats for allies and she does not want to do that. In four cornered contests, the TMC is expected to win a majority of seats. The Congress is expected to retain just two seats, one in Behrampore, the stronghold of newly appointed state party president Adhir Choudhary and the other in Malda, the family fief of late Abdul Ghani Khan Choudhary. Jaswant Singh of the BJP can only hope to retain Darjeeling if GJM supports it. With Mamata fielding eminent footballer Bhaichung Bhutia there, the situation has become tricky.

The opinion polls show that TMC will win 24 seats, up from 19 in 2009, whereas the CPI (M) will win 14, down one from the 15 it won in 2009. Hence, the TMC picks up most of seats at the cost of the INC that is slated to come down to 2 from the 6 it held. The BJP had Darjeeling and is predicted to retain it. But the picture is not that crystal clear on the ground. TMC has fielded some big stars from cinema, theatre and music world’s who can be expected to give sitting MPs a stiff fight. Both the CPI (M) and the TMC have gone for many new faces.

But the TMC has an upper hand because in several local elections after it assumed power, its vote percentage has steadily risen and its cadres are brimming with confidence. The CPI (M) and the other Left parties are in disarray, with shrinking cadre base and indifferent leaders. In June 2012, the CPI (M) had expelled Anil Basu, the party strong man in Arambagh, more famous as the leader who made obscene remarks against Mamata Banerjee. It has also recently expelled senior leader Abdul Rezzak Mollah, who had won the assembly elections in 2011 when other well known names fell like nine pins under the TMC wave. Lakhsman Seth has also turned rebel in Midnapore. The party seems a divided unit. Given this scenario, it will not surprise observers if TMC manages to win at least half a dozen more seats than what the opinion polls are giving it.

But Mamata’s position remains awkward because post polls, she cannot align with the NDA for reasons explained above. She could have aligned with the UPA but as of now it is not in the picture. Her best bet has come now as the AIADMK-Left alliance in Tamil Nadu has soured and is almost over for disagreement over seat sharing. With the AIADMK sure to keep out of the so called Third Front now, Mamata Banerjee has indicated her willingness to work with Jayalalitha. She is even willing to back her for the top post. Jayalalitha has also been in touch with her.

If these two ladies can work out a non-BJP, non-Congress and non-Left front with the other regional parties, an alternative can be found in case of a hung parliament. If shove comes to push and if a UPA-Third Front government comes up, she can demand the exclusion of the communists for her support. That remains an option. It remains to be seen whether the UPA and the other constituents of the Front will accept her dictates. It also remains to be seen whether Jayalalitha will follow her on that. One thing is clear though, if there is a hung parliament, Mamata Banerjee will have a lot to do.