Equations in West Bengal in Lok Sabha poll- Editorial EOI

Tussle for supremacy among the three biggies in West Bengal politics in the ensuing Lok Sabha election is poised to benefit the fourth contender

Editorial EOI, 4 February 2024 : The tussle for supremacy among the three biggies in West Bengal politics in the ensuing Lok Sabha election is poised to benefit the fourth contender instate politics in terms of the number of seats won in the poll and also in terms of gaining a mileage while facing the assembly election in the state scheduled to be held in 2026. 

Among these big three are the Congress, the CPI (M) and the Trinamool Congress. These are the three parties which have been in government in West Bengal since Independence; the fourth contender, the BJP, used to be considered an outsider in state politics till lately.

Among the leading three, the plight of the CPI(M), the party which has ruled the state as leader of the Left Front for 34 long years, is the worst. To find a foothold in the Lok Sabha election, the party has to hang on to the shirt-tail of the Congress. The CPI (M)cannot afford to have any understanding with the Trinamool Congress as in that case it runs the risk of being swamped by the present incumbent in the election in 2026. 

The CPI (M) has never been a strong contender for power in Delhi, except for a brief period when the name of the former Chief Minister of West Bengal Jyoti Basu for the chair of the Prime Minister had been proposed by an anti-Congress coalition. 

The main political ambition of the CPI (M) to upstage Trinamool Congress in 2026 in West Bengal, and for this the correct strategy of Alimuddin Street will be to firm up the coalition with the Congress.

This will suit the interest of the Congress too as the grand old party of India cannot hope to win any Lok Sabha seat in West Bengal without a coalition with either the CPI (M) or the Trinamool Congress. Wth West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee offering only two Lok Sabha seats to the Congress out of the 42 in the state, it is but natural that the Congress has turned down the offer. 

The logic of Mamata Banerjee of not offering the Congress a respectable number of seats is also not difficult to fathom. She herself is a contender for the chair of the Prime Minister, and for this it will help the Trinamool to have as many seats in its kitty as possible. 

West Bengal is the only state where the Trinamool will win seats. The BJP being firmly ensconced in the government in the north-eastern states of Assam, Tripura and Manipur, there is little hope of the Trinamool winning any seat anywhere else in the country. 

The other fear of the Trinamool is that the Congress may wean away some of its support base among the minority community. West Bengal, therefore, is likely to witness a three-cornered contest in the ensuing Lok Sabha poll; between the Trinamool Congress, the Congress– CPI (M) combine and the BJP which, in the past 10 years of power in Delhi, has managed to create a foothold in West Bengal with promises like the Citizenship Amendment Act and policies like polarizing votes with its Hindutva campaign. 

The Lok Sabha vote being a referendum on the performance of the Narendra Modi government, it will help the BJP if the opposition vote gets divided between the Trinamool and the Left – Congress alliance. Some extra seats in West Bengal may prove handy for the BJP during the formation of the government as the competition may be tight; with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi certainly gaining some mileage from his two- phase Bharat Yodo Yatra