Covid count below 1m, but caution sounded

 Union health ministry described 'two straight weeks' as a ‘landmark milestone’

G.S. Mudur   |   TT  |  New Delhi   |   06.10.20 : India’s counts of active coronavirus patients have remained below 1 million for 14 days amid a decline in daily new cases since mid-September, but experts say any laxity in precautions could trigger fresh surges in the coming weeks.

The Union health ministry on Monday described the “two straight weeks” with active patients’ counts below 1 million as a “landmark milestone” and pointed to the downward trend in active cases that have fallen from 1,010,824 on September 20 to 934,427 on October 4.

Medical experts tracking the epidemic say the overall national decline in new cases is encouraging and is a likely outcome of the decrease observed over the past two weeks in some states that made up large proportions of the daily new cases.

In Maharashtra, the state with the largest counts, for instance, the seven-day average daily count has declined from around 21,000 to 14,000 over the past two weeks.

In Uttar Pradesh, the average daily count has reduced from 6,000 to 4,000.

But the reductions aren’t uniform across India. The daily counts show only modest reductions in some states such as Karnataka (9,700 to 9,200 over the past 14 days) and Tamil Nadu (5,605 to 5,598).

In three states, the seven-day average daily counts have increased — in Kerala, from 3,920 to 7,786, in Manipur from 146 to 222, and in Rajasthan from 1,797 to 2,167 — over the past two weeks.

The numbers of samples tested daily have ranged over the past 14 days from a low of 7.09 lakh to a high of 14.92 lakh, and health officials have said the decline in numbers has occurred despite steady testing levels.

Experts say there is no evidence yet to suggest that the two-week fall in the daily new infections is the outcome of fewer tests.

“Any gross missed cases through laxity in testing would have consequences — the infection would spread and we would see surges and an increase in demand for hospital care,” said Oommen John, a physician and senior research fellow at The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi.

But epidemiologists are concerned that any let-up in the adoption of precautions such as wearing masks or avoiding crowds could push the numbers upwards again. A national sero-survey has suggested that hundreds of millions of people across the country — in urban and rural areas — have not yet been infected by the virus and are thus susceptible to the infection.

The health ministry on Monday recorded 75,442 new cases, raising the country’s total number of lab-confirmed Covid-19 infections to over 6.62 million, of whom over 5.58 million have recovered and 102,685 patients have died.