Brexit – is this the beginning of another Great War?

Paul Rai, KalimNews, Kalimpong, 28 June 2016: With the ‘Brexit’ episode – now the whole world is clamouring to decide issues through referendum. France, Italy, Netherland followed by others will automatically face the referendum pressure whether to be in EU or not to be. Even MEPs says EU will crumble within five years after the Brexit result. Post Brexit, it appears that it’s no more the whims and fancies of elected governments to hold the referendum. Rather, political parties may call for it with vested interest clubbed with the aspiration of the people.

Present situation in Europe should be dealt with utmost care – in order to ensure there is no massive chaos, this implies not only in EU region but also in many parts of the world. In my opinion - Brexit is the tip of the iceberg; the whole world has been shaken with this event. Governments must be prepared to deal with any unforeseen crisis. Current media focus is on the economy, stock markets, financial and investment companies, however, it’s a symptom that is clearly indicating that even greater crisis is coming in the future. The most obvious outcome could possibly be a war, if this referendum syndrome spreads across EU. Now EU region have become volatile – as others might learn from Britain, Germany has already warned that five more countries are likely to exit EU.

Britain got exited from EU with a thin decisive margin of 4% votes (52%/48%). I watched the video the other day – when a pre-poll survey was conducted in London. Many people did not have any clue what Brexit was or the purpose of referendum. People were reacting with long faces – not been able to pronounce the word ‘Brexit’ properly. This was the condition of the voters who had to decide on the fate of Britain exiting EU. 
I was thrilled at their campaigning style – rather I should say – the Camaron style, and for sure it was not much of a strategy. My question is – did people vote out of a convincing campaign or for the sake of casting vote - they voted? Because, many voters are regretting why they voted for ‘Brexit’.

After the announcement of Brexit, EU leaders were fuming with anger, frustrated and shocked – they never anticipated this. There was actual sadness and worries in their faces... and out of sheer frustration they were yelling ‘Get out Brits’ ‘leave EU NOW’. This time the shock was real and it was no hypocrisy. After the humiliating defeat on Brexit, Camaron had to step down as PM – he has been blamed for calling referendum at wrong time. Currently, a major politics is going on in the streets of London to have the 2nd round of referendum. Top notch politicians (some from London and Scotland) and experts are rethinking on this. But the snare which they laid to erase ‘the idea of exiting EU’ once for all - eventually caught the foot of those who laid it. Camaron said he was not expecting the result to go contrary to his expectation - followed by a high drama staged by husband and wife during his speech after referendum.

Here onwards Britain is loosen from the influence of EU and became independent entity. The United States and the independent UK will have a new relationship going forward and new goals in terms of commerce and defence. Britain will have the leverage to participate directly in any US venture and can take independent decision on immigration and foreign policies. Moreover, if the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gets the entry to White House as a President in November 2016 than US will have more solid bond with Britain. 
It appears that Brexit is not only a historical event in Britain’s history – but an eye opener which may bring changes throughout Europe. Donald Trump administration would benefit from Brexit – because it fuels the issues on immigration. Even the EU countries are having immigration issues – recent policies that had been adopted by EU leaders to absorb Syrian refugees will back fire now and common people who are facing the impact of the EU’s decision on economy and immigration may find answer in referendum. So, the math is clear – the EU member states will see tremendous public outcry in coming days.

Currently, when I see the political map of Europe – I can see the boundaries appearing little thicker than what it was before Brexit. The wind of change is blowing in Europe in the wake of Britain leaving EU – and quietly others are preparing for it. France has seen enough in the past years and has been majorly influenced by EU’s policies and programmes. There is a high possibility that France would be the first country after Britain to face referendum heat from political outfits and people at large.

The central point is Germany – who had been decisive in formulating policies and influencing the EU member states. The way Germany handled Greece bail-out, and the way the national assets of Greece were registered under a Trust’s name in Luxemburg shows Germany’s economic dictate over other EU states. In recent years Germany has taken over a million refugees, phase wise – through their refugee rehabilitation programme from Syria and the burnt had been borne by innocent citizens because of unruly refugees. 
At this time Markel is vocal on convincing other EU states not to follow the way Britain chose to leave EU. However, some of the EU countries are already feeling the undercurrents of referendum which is simmering at the moment. After WW II there had been some sort of peace and understanding among European nations, tremendous focus was given on development, based on ‘now work – no food’ ideology across war torn Europe. Eventually, Brexit is the first hit after the war which has shaken the roots of the united Europe.

In the recent years there was a common speculation that WW III could begin from the Middle East. However, if this sort of events occurs in Europe than international balance of power may change overnight and history might repeat itself. Ironically, two great wars (WW I and II) started from Europe... if this referendum pattern is not tackled appropriately than this could be the beginning of another great war (WW III).