BJP favoured in West Bengal Rajya Sabha bypolls as Trinamool unlikely to field candidates

PTI, July 6, 2026, Kolkata: The Election Commission's announcement of bypolls to three Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal has set the stage for what could become another marker of the state's shifting political landscape, with the BJP emerging as the clear favourite to win all three seats and the divided Trinamool Congress facing the prospect of a further reduction in its parliamentary presence.

The bypolls, scheduled for July 24, were necessitated by the resignations of former Trinamool Rajya Sabha members Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, Sushmita Dev and Prakash Chik Baraik, who quit both the Upper House and the party in June after questioning the leadership following the TMC's defeat in the Assembly elections.

The terms of Roy and Baraik were due to run till September 2029, while Dev's tenure was to continue till April 2030.

The Trinamool Congress' present strength in the Rajya Sabha is nine.

With the BJP holding 208 seats in the 294-member Assembly, the numbers overwhelmingly favour the saffron camp. If it fields three candidates and its legislators vote along party lines, the party can comfortably secure around 70, 69 and 69 votes for its nominees respectively, making victory in all three contests a distinct possibility.

Under the Rajya Sabha electoral system, a candidate in the three-seat bypoll would require around 70 first-preference votes to secure election. The BJP's current strength in the Assembly places it in a position to meet that threshold for three candidates without depending on support from other parties.

The arithmetic also illustrates the challenge before the principal opposition, the Trinamool Congress.

Any rival candidate would require at least 70 votes to defeat a BJP nominee. While the combined strength of legislators elected on the TMC ticket still stands at around 80, the party's legislative wing is now split between the camp led by Mamata Banerjee and the dissident faction headed by Leader of Opposition Ritabrata Banerjee.

In theory, a united Trinamool Congress could have attempted to consolidate support behind a common candidate and remain in contention for one seat. In practice, however, the deepening organisational battle has made such an understanding increasingly unlikely, according to political observers.

The BJP said the bypolls reflected the broader political changes underway in the state.

"The outcome appears largely determined by the current arithmetic in the Assembly. The TMC is fighting itself while the BJP is focused on governance and organisation. An increase in our Rajya Sabha strength will reflect the mandate that Bengal has given us," a senior state BJP leader said.

A BJP victory in all three seats would strengthen the party's representation in the Rajya Sabha while further reducing the Trinamool Congress' strength in the Upper House.