Exit polls vs exact results: Will predictions match reality on May 4?

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he Week, April 30, 2026 : With exit polls suggesting victories, defeats and even hung assemblies in the recently concluded Assembly elections across four States and one Union Territory, all eyes are now on whether these predictions will reflect in the counting on May 4.

While exit polls have differed in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, surveys have clearly allotted Kerala to the Congress and Assam to the BJP. However, it should be noted that exit polls have gone wrong several times in the past.

In West Bengal, most exit polls hint at a hung Assembly. The simple majority mark in the 294-member Assembly is 148. Peoples Pulse predicted that the TMC would get 185 seats against the BJP’s 104.

However, other surveys gave the BJP an edge. The latest exit poll from Bengal, released by Today’s Chanakya, projected 192+ seats for the BJP while pegging the TMC at 100+.

A Chanakya Strategies survey said the BJP would win 155 seats against 135 for the Trinamool Congress, while the Matrize poll predicted 146–161 for the saffron party against TMC’s 125–140. The JVC survey forecast 150 seats for the BJP against 142 for Mamata Banerjee’s party. The exit polls released by P-MARQ suggest that the BJP will sweep the polls in 150–175 constituencies while the TMC will be reduced to 118–138 seats.

Interestingly, Axis My India has not released its exit poll predictions.

The exit polls failed miserably in the previous Bengal Assembly polls. In 2021, the TMC bagged 216 seats, winning 61 more constituencies than what was predicted by exit polls. The BJP-led NDA fell short by 49 seats, winning 77.

A survey by Jan Ki Baat even predicted a landslide BJP victory, giving the NDA 162–185 seats while predicting that the Trinamool Congress would get just 104–121. Today’s Chanakya had predicted that the TMC would win 169 to 191 seats against 97 to 119 for the BJP. The P-MARQ survey gave 152–172 seats for the TMC compared to 112–132 for the BJP.

Most exit polls lean towards a DMK victory in Tamil Nadu, but a survey by Axis My India suggests that actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could come to power in its electoral debut in the 234-seat Assembly. It predicts 98–120 seats for TVK against 92–100 for DMK-led SPA and 22–32 for AIADMK-led NDA. The simple majority mark is 118.

Peoples Pulse forecasts 125–145 seats for the DMK-led SPA against 65–80 for the AIADMK-BJP combine, while TVK was projected to bag just 2–6 constituencies. Matrize predicts that Stalin’s coalition would claim 122 to 132 seats while the NDA could bag 80–100 constituencies and Vijay’s TVK may get 0–6 segments.

P-MARQ projects a DMK victory with 125–145 seats for the alliance against 60–70 for the AIADMK-led NDA and 1–6 for Vijay’s party. People’s Insight gave largely similar figures for DMK+ (120–140) and AIADMK+ (60–70), but predicts that TVK could win 30 to 40 seats.

The 2021 exit polls correctly predicted a DMK victory but the actual figures were slightly lower. The DMK-led alliance won 159 seats, compared to around 166 predicted by exit polls. The NDA led by AIADMK bagged 75 seats compared to the exit poll projection of 63.

All exit polls predicted anti-incumbency against Pinarayi Vijayan’s LDF government in Kerala and projected a comeback for the Congress-led UDF after a gap of 10 years. The UDF is expected to win 75 to 85 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly compared to 55–65 for the LDF.

Axis My India projected 78–90 seats for the UDF compared to 49–62 for the LDF and 0–3 for the BJP. People’s Pulse forecast a UDF victory with 75–85 seats while the LDF was projected to get 55–65 and the BJP 0–3.

The exit polls in 2021 predicted that the LDF could secure around 82 seats and form government for a second term while the UDF was projected to get 56 constituencies. However, the election results revealed a thumping victory for the CPI(M)-led LDF, which bagged 99 seats. The Congress-led UDF got just 41 seats.

The BJP is predicted to register a landslide victory in Assam and form government for a third term, with a projection of around 90 seats in the 126-member Assembly. The Congress is expected to secure around 30 seats.

Axis My India suggests that the BJP could claim 88 to 100 seats while the Congress is likely to bag 24–36 constituencies. Matrize pegged the BJP figures at 85–95 against 25–32 for the Congress.

Assam exit polls in 2021 received widespread attention after accurately predicting the results with a narrow margin of error. The BJP was projected to win 71 seats and it won 75 in the elections. The Congress won 50 seats while exit polls suggested around 54.

The AINRC-led NDA is likely to bag 16–20 seats in the 30-member Puducherry Assembly while the Congress-DMK combine is predicted to get 6–8 constituencies and the TVK around 2–4 segments.

Axis My India predicts that the NDA could secure 16–20 constituencies and 6–8 for the Congress-led UPA and 2–4 for Vijay’s TVK.

People’s Pulse suggests that the NDA could win 16–19 seats while the Congress might bag 10–12 segments and TVK 1–2.

Exit polls were correct in projecting an NDA win though the final numbers were far from the predictions. The NDA was expected to win around 21 seats but secured just 16. On the other hand, the Congress-led UPA was expected to win nine seats and the alliance won the same number of seats.