Analysis Examines Voter Roll Revision Impact on West Bengal Assembly Election

MP, May 1, 2026, Kolkata: The Assembly election in West Bengal was unlike any before. Multiple layers of acrimony turned it into an unprecedented political slugfest, with SIR (Special Intensive Revision) at its core.

With polling over, the key question is whether SIR met the BJP’s objective of fracturing the TMC’s Muslim ‘vote bank’ and consolidating Hindu support.

This analysis examines SIR across phases and its implications.

Data from all 294 constituencies were grouped into four equal quadrants (Q1–Q4) by the rising Muslim population. While averages may miss extremes, they reveal macro trends.

In Phase 1, the draft roll saw deletion of 58 lakh voters — dead, absent, shifted or duplicate.

Deletions rose from 7.5 per cent in Q1 to 8.7 per cent in Q2, then fell to 6.1 per cent in Q4, indicating lower deletion in Muslim-dominated seats.

Muslims accounted for 23 per cent of deletions, below their demographic share.

Also, 30 lakh voters were found unmapped with the 2002 roll, with proportions declining towards Muslim-dominated constituencies.

Phase 2 began with hearings of unmapped voters but expanded to include 120 lakh more flagged under ‘Logical Discrepancy’ (LD) by an algorithm-driven tool.

In total, 150 lakh voters were heard, leading to two outcomes.

Of these, 90 lakh cases were settled with 5.46 lakh deletions, showing a decline from Q1 to Q4.

The turning point was 60 lakh voters placed ‘Under Adjudication’, rising sharply from 3.2 per cent in Q1 to 16.5 per cent in Q4.

Some constituencies showed far higher proportions.

Overall, a disproportionately high number of Muslim voters were marked ‘doubtful’.

Concerns were raised about the tool’s ability to recognise Bengali naming patterns across communities, and whether this lack of socio-cultural sensitivity led to lakhs being marked ‘Under Adjudication’, including long-settled residents.

In Phase 3, the Hon’ble Supreme Court ordered judicial review of these 60 lakh cases.

Of them, 27 lakh (45 per cent) were found ineligible.

Exclusion rates here were higher in Hindu-dominated constituencies, partly offsetting the earlier skew where more Muslims were marked ‘Under Adjudication’.

Two clear trends emerge.

First, lower Muslim exclusion in the draft roll, unmapped voters, and judicial review.

Second, disproportionately high Muslim exclusion under ‘Logical Discrepancy’.

The net effect shows partial self-correction, with ratios rising from 10.4 per cent in Q1 to 13.1 per cent in Q4 — an increase towards Muslim-dominated areas, but not sharply disruptive.

Overall, Muslims constitute 34 per cent of the 91 lakh total deletions — above their demographic share, but not drastically so.

This raises questions about the ‘infiltration’ narrative and whether higher Hindu exclusions contradict the BJP’s political claims.

Electoral choice often goes beyond numbers.

To assess patterns from voter surge across two phases, district-wise effective surge was plotted against SIR deletion percentage.

Effective surge was derived from 2021 turnout, roll expansion till 2025, SIR-related shrinkage, and Form 6 additions, and compared with turnout in this election.

Howrah, Hooghly, North and South 24 Parganas were split into urban and rural segments to capture variation near Kolkata.

The result (graph) shows a striking correlation (0.94) between voter surge and SIR deletions — exceptionally high for an electorate exceeding 6.3 crore.

This suggests SIR-triggered social responses, driven by either anguish over deletion or fear of losing voter status, significantly shaped turnout.

SIR appears to have dominated this election — from eligibility to turnout — overshadowing other issues.

How voters ultimately responded — through anger or anxiety — will become clear soon.

Whether SIR dynamics return the Trinamool Congress for a fourth term or help the BJP breach its ‘last bastion’ will be known on May 4.

Either outcome will be historic for Bengal.