IMD Forecasts Warmer February With Below-Normal Rainfall

 Expect warmer February, rain over Himalayas declining: IMD

PTI, January 31, 2026, New Delhi : India is expected to witness a warmer February with below-normal rains, particularly in the Himalayan region, where a drier winter can be linked to climate change, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.

Addressing a press conference here, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said monthly rainfall in February for the country as a whole is expected to be below normal, and both the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

He said the above-normal temperatures may accelerate crop growth and shorten crop duration of rabi crops, particularly in northwest and central India.

“Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction,” the top meteorologist said.

He said that monthly rainfall in February over northwest India — comprising East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh — is most likely to be below normal.

The absence of western disturbances in December and most of January, he said, had resulted in drier winters in the western Himalayan region, which experienced snowfall only after January 20.

“Over the period of time, rainfall over western Himalayas has shown a decreasing trend, which has been attributed to climate change by studies carried out by the IMD and other institutes,” he said.

However, he said it was difficult to point out which particular aspect of climate change was the cause of the decline in rainfall in the western Himalayan region.

“Attribution studies are very difficult not only in India, but also the world over,” Mohapatra said.

He said two back-to-back western disturbances brought rains to the western parts of the country — regions west of 80 degrees east longitude — while the eastern regions remained dry.

A depression in the Bay of Bengal in January, which travelled to northeast Sri Lanka, kept the eastern parts of the country, except the northeastern region, without rains.

Mohapatra said the minimum temperatures in February are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of south peninsular India, where normal minimum temperatures are expected.

Similarly, maximum temperatures are also likely to remain above normal over most parts of the country, barring isolated regions of central India and southern peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely.