Experts Warn of Potential Major Earthquake in South Asia : Magnitude Could Reach 8.0 or Higher, Scientists Say

South Asia Faces Growing Earthquake Threat: Experts Sound Alarm

KalimNews, October 11, 2025 :  As South Asia continues to grapple with the economic, environmental, and political challenges of the modern world, a looming natural disaster threat has drawn the attention of global agencies and scientists alike: the increasing risk of a major earthquake in the region. Experts across various fields, including geology, disaster risk reduction, and regional policymakers, are now urgently calling for preparedness measures to mitigate potential devastation.

The Growing Risk in South Asia

The US Geological Survey (USGS) warns that South Asia remains one of the world’s most seismically active regions. The tectonic boundary between the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plates, which converge directly under countries like Nepal, India, and Pakistan, is under constant strain. Dr. John Hamilton, senior seismologist at USGS, notes: "Earthquakes in this region are a matter of when, not if—the pressure has been building for centuries, and it is only a matter of time before the fault lines give way."

While it's difficult to predict the exact timing of such an event, USGS estimates that major earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 or higher) in the region occur on average every 50 to 100 years, with localized events having a higher frequency. Historical records suggest that large earthquakes have struck India and Nepal in 1819, 1934, and 2015, with varying degrees of destruction.

Recent Findings and Warning Signals

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) has raised significant concerns about South Asia's vulnerability. A report published this week highlights that more than 1.3 billion people live in areas prone to earthquakes across the region, with urban areas such as Kathmandu, Delhi, and Islamabad particularly at risk. Mr. Roberto Sussman, a UNDRR spokesperson, emphasized, "The risk in South Asia is not just about earthquakes, but about inadequate infrastructure in high-density populations."

Recent seismic activities in Nepal have sparked fears of an impending quake. Nepal’s Department of Mines and Geology issued a statement acknowledging a marked increase in minor tremors over the past few months. According to Dr. Prakash Sharma, head of Nepal's Geological Survey, "We’ve detected a significant uptick in tremors, especially near the fault zones close to the Kathmandu Valley. While these aren't major earthquakes yet, they serve as a clear warning."

The Hindu newspaper, citing local sources, reports that in the last two years, several districts in India, including Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu and Kashmir, have experienced escalating tremors, with some reaching magnitudes over 5.0 on the Richter scale. Authorities in these regions have begun preparing emergency response plans, although experts argue that much more is needed to protect vulnerable populations.

Survey Findings and Expert Opinions

A recent survey by the International Red Cross and Oxfam, as reported by Al Jazeera, revealed a stark gap in disaster preparedness among South Asian countries. While nations like India and Pakistan have made strides in improving earthquake-resistant buildings, much of the rural population remains exposed due to weak construction standards. Dr. Amina Yusuf, a disaster management expert, noted, “The risk of widespread destruction is incredibly high in rural areas, where building codes are often ignored, and emergency services are sparse.”

Additionally, scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) have developed a new seismic vulnerability index, which reveals that many South Asian cities, including Dhaka and Lahore, are severely underprepared for an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or higher. Their findings suggest that even moderate quakes could result in widespread loss of life and infrastructure collapse, especially in overcrowded urban environments.

Global Reactions: Urging Immediate Action

In a joint statement released this week, the European Union, United Kingdom, and France have called for immediate action to address the growing earthquake risk in South Asia. The leaders of these nations stated that coordinated international aid and technical support would be provided to reinforce building safety standards, improve emergency preparedness, and facilitate the transfer of earthquake detection technologies to the region.

French President Emmanuel Macron remarked, “We cannot stand idly by while our South Asian friends are left vulnerable to such natural disasters. It is crucial that we assist in making these regions more resilient.”

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has voiced his country’s support for South Asia's efforts. In a recent interview, Putin stated, “Russia has extensive experience in seismic preparedness and is ready to share our knowledge and expertise to help mitigate this looming threat.”

Calls for Action from the White House

Back in the United States, White House spokesperson Steven Cheung issued a statement urging immediate international cooperation. “While the US is leading peace efforts worldwide, we must not forget the importance of disaster risk reduction, especially in regions like South Asia. A major earthquake in this area could reverse years of economic and social progress,” Cheung said.

A Call for Regional Cooperation

The International Red Cross also stresses the importance of regional collaboration. Christian Cardon, the spokesperson for the Red Cross, said, "South Asia’s response must be coordinated across borders. Earthquakes do not recognize political boundaries, and the relief effort must be immediate and comprehensive."

South Asian leaders are now calling for an urgent summit to address these concerns. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in a recent address, emphasized the need for a pan-South Asian approach to disaster risk reduction. He said, “India stands ready to collaborate with our neighbors and the international community to ensure that we are all prepared for what is likely an unavoidable natural disaster.”

Conclusion: A Region in Peril

As the risk of a catastrophic earthquake looms over South Asia, the region's governments, scientists, and international organizations face an uphill battle in ensuring that the proper measures are taken. With tens of millions of lives at stake, the time for action is now. Strengthening infrastructure, updating building codes, preparing emergency systems, and fostering international cooperation are essential steps to safeguard the region from a disaster of potentially devastating proportions.

The coming months will likely prove critical in determining whether South Asia will be ready when the ground shakes.

While the exact timing of such an earthquake remains uncertain, the ongoing seismic activity in South Asia has prompted serious concerns from experts. The key to minimizing loss of life and damage in the event of a major earthquake will lie in robust preparedness efforts, improved monitoring systems, and international cooperation. As the region braces for the possibility of a large-scale seismic event, both governments and citizens must take proactive steps to safeguard lives and property.

Sources:

1. US Geological Survey (USGS)

2. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

3. The Hindu

4. Nepal’s Department of Mines and Geology

5. Al Jazeera

6. International Red Cross