China's Brahmaputra Super-Dam: A Geopolitical and Environmental Time Bomb with Global Repercussions

KalimNews, October 2, 2025, Delhi: The world's attention remains fixed on China’s ambitious construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower project, located on the Yarlung Zangbo River (commonly known as the Brahmaputra), just a few kilometers from the Indian border. Despite mounting concerns, the international community has remained largely silent, raising alarms that the same oversight that led to the environmental catastrophes of the Three Gorges Dam could now be replayed on an even larger scale.

In July 2025, Premier Li Qiang officially acknowledged the megaproject, confirming years of satellite surveillance that had already hinted at large-scale activities on the Tibetan Plateau. The Brahmaputra project will not only surpass China’s Three Gorges Dam but will also carry immense hydrological, environmental, and geopolitical ramifications for Asia and beyond. Situated on one of the world’s most seismically active fault lines, the dam poses serious risks, both in terms of environmental degradation and potential geopolitical leverage.

China’s environmental track record with large dams raises serious concerns. The Three Gorges Dam, currently the world’s largest, has triggered landslides, seismic activity, and even slightly altered the planet’s rotation. The new dam on the Brahmaputra, by harnessing the river’s steep descent through the Tibetan Plateau’s deepest canyon, is expected to generate nearly three times the hydropower of the Three Gorges. However, experts warn that it could trigger catastrophic environmental consequences, including altered river flows and disrupted ecosystems.

Geostrategist Brahma Chellaney expressed concern that despite the enormous global implications, the international community has failed to react forcefully to China’s announcement. "One would have expected such a revelation to trigger strong international reactions. Yet, despite the dam’s extraordinary implications, the world has stayed silent," Chellaney stated. His analysis highlights the growing risks associated with China’s unilateral control over transboundary rivers.

The Lhasa River, a major tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo River, flows near the southern part of the Tibetan capital, Lhasa. China’s new megadam project could become a geopolitical and ecological time bomb  

Reuters also reported that, "While Beijing has justified the dam’s construction as crucial for energy and flood control, critics argue it could further exacerbate the tensions with neighboring countries, particularly India and Bangladesh, who rely on the Brahmaputra for their water needs." The agency further emphasized the scale of China’s ambitions, noting that the dam's potential to generate power — and, more controversially, to manipulate water flows — presents a "geopolitical gambit" in Beijing's broader strategy to assert its dominance over regional water resources.

The Brahmaputra’s unique geography makes it a river of immense ecological significance. Flowing from the glaciers of Tibet through India’s northeast and into Bangladesh, it sustains millions of people and plays a key role in agriculture, fisheries, and biodiversity. Seasonal floods, far from being destructive, also help to recharge groundwater and deposit vital nutrient-rich sediment, which nourishes farmlands in both India and Bangladesh. The construction of the dam threatens to disrupt this vital ecological cycle, jeopardizing food and water security for millions.

The geopolitical implications are no less concerning. Situated near the heavily militarized border of Arunachal Pradesh — a region that China claims as part of its territory — the Brahmaputra project will give Beijing an unprecedented level of control over water resources in a region where tensions with India have remained high. The dam could enable China to manipulate water flows, withholding water during the dry season or releasing excess water during the monsoon to create surges that could devastate downstream communities in India and Bangladesh. Such tactics could further exacerbate the already fragile relationship between India and China, with water potentially becoming a new instrument of coercion.

This move follows a pattern of Chinese dominance over shared water resources in Asia. Since its annexation of Tibet in 1951, China has positioned itself as the source of many of Asia’s major rivers, including the Mekong, where China’s series of dams have already disrupted water security for Southeast Asian countries. Despite these issues, China has remained resolute in its refusal to engage in meaningful water-sharing agreements or to comply with international norms governing shared water resources.

Sayanangshu Modak, an expert on the India-China water relationship at the University of Arizona, pointed out that the seismic risks involved in building such a colossal structure on the Tibetan Plateau cannot be ignored. “The Chinese dam is being built in a zone of high seismicity and in a zone that experiences extreme weather events," Modak noted. "These kinds of extreme weather events trigger landslides, mudslides, and glacial lake outburst flooding. So that raises concerns about dam safety... it's a very legitimate concern and India should engage with China.”

The environmental and political risks associated with the Brahmaputra dam cannot be overstated. The Tibetan Plateau, which is warming at twice the global average rate, already faces significant ecological strain from climate change, glacial retreat, and permafrost thaw. Disrupting its hydrological balance could have far-reaching consequences for Asia’s monsoon system, weather patterns, and agricultural productivity — impacts that would extend well beyond South Asia and into global weather systems.

However, despite these grave concerns, international reactions have been subdued. India, while voicing its concerns and calling for transparency, has yet to formulate a coherent diplomatic strategy to mitigate the project’s impact. Other global powers, wary of angering China, have largely remained silent. This inaction mirrors the earlier failure to address the environmental fallout of the Three Gorges Dam — a mistake the world cannot afford to repeat.

In response to China’s dam project, India has accelerated plans to build its own dam on the Brahmaputra. In May 2025, Indian hydropower company NHPC began surveying land for the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Dam in Arunachal Pradesh, with the aim of securing water resources for the region’s growing population. The Indian government has voiced concerns that China’s dam could reduce water flows by as much as 85% during the dry season, threatening the livelihoods of millions in the downstream regions. India’s proposed dam would help mitigate this by storing up to 14 billion cubic meters of water, which would be released during dry periods.

However, the Indian project faces resistance from local communities, particularly the Adi people in Arunachal Pradesh, who fear the displacement of their villages. Many of these communities, which rely on the fertile land along the Siang River for agriculture, have resisted the dam’s construction. Some villagers have even clashed with NHPC workers, destroying equipment and blocking access to survey sites. Despite this, the Indian government has proposed compensation plans and is exploring ways to address local concerns.

The timeline for India’s Upper Siang project is a key point of concern. Even if the project proceeds, it could take a decade or more to complete, meaning it would be vulnerable during construction if China’s dam alters water flows or causes flooding. The potential for Beijing to release excessive water during the monsoon season could further complicate India’s efforts.

International experts and activists also caution that the construction of large dams in seismically active regions, such as Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh, could trigger further environmental disasters, including landslides, mudslides, and glacial lake outburst floods. These risks only heighten the potential dangers associated with both China’s and India’s dam projects, especially considering the fragile ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern Himalayas.

In addition to the environmental and geopolitical consequences, the Brahmaputra dam will provide China with a potent geopolitical tool. By controlling the river’s flow, China will not only be able to wield significant leverage over India and Bangladesh but also further assert its dominance over shared water resources in the region. This shift toward hydraulic hegemony marks a new phase in China's broader strategy of securing control over Asia’s vital water resources.

The international community must now confront this growing crisis head-on. The environmental damage caused by the Three Gorges Dam should serve as a warning. If the world fails to act, the Brahmaputra dam will become a powerful geopolitical tool — one that could destabilize South Asia’s water and food security and trigger broader ecological consequences that will reverberate worldwide. The time for action is now, before the dam’s long fuse runs out.