Trump 2.0 World and Sheikh Hasina’s Sinking Boat in Bangladesh

Saleem Samad, KalimNews, November 11, 2024, Dhaka : Just days after Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the US presidential election, Ambassador Humayun Kabir, a credible commentator on foreign affairs, told Prothom Alo, an independent newspaper, that the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and the United States would not be "sailing in troubled waters" as expected by the ousted Sheikh Hasina’s loyalists.

“I do not foresee any major changes in US-Bangladesh relations,” the former diplomat said confidently. He also pointed out that, unlike in South Asian countries, American foreign policy does not change dramatically after a change of government, whether the Democrats or Republicans win the election.

It is very rare for an incumbent regime in the US to engage in "witch-hunting" of loyalists of the previous government or opposition political parties—something that, unfortunately, is common in South Asia’s revenge-driven political culture.

Dr. Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s interim government’s chief adviser, congratulated Trump on his election as the new US president, expressing optimism about strengthened bilateral ties and future cooperation.

However, as reported on social media, the disgraced Awami League and its exiled leader Sheikh Hasina were upbeat about Trump’s victory. They believed that his election win might help Hasina return to power, as she lives in exile in Delhi.

The Awami League loyalists thought that Trump, who had lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good friend” and condemned “the barbaric violence against Hindus and Christians... in Bangladesh,” would lend moral support to Hasina in her quest to return to power, possibly with India’s help.

Trump, who will be sworn in as president in January 2025, had previously painted Bangladesh under Dr. Yunus as being in a “total state of chaos.”

Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the chief adviser, quickly responded, claiming that Trump had been provided with incorrect information regarding the contentious issue of religious minorities after the interim government took charge in early August.

Meanwhile, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert with a particular focus on Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, said that US-Bangladesh relations had experienced a reset this year. This reset began after Bangladesh's controversial election in January, when US President Joe Biden sent a letter to Hasina, expressing his “sincere desire” to cooperate across a wide range of areas despite months of bilateral tension leading up to the election, which the US State Department later categorized as “not free or fair.”

In a rush to maintain control, Hasina sank her party’s election symbol—the ‘Boat.’ Political observers explain that salvaging the capsized boat in the future would be a Herculean task.

Hasina ignored Biden’s warning and pressed ahead with a flawed parliamentary election for the third consecutive term. The reset truly took off after the mass movement against Hasina last monsoon, which brought Yunus to power. The US State Department quickly issued a statement saying it “stands ready to work” with Bangladesh’s interim government, Kugelman noted.

When Hasina fled, she did not leave any message for her party leaders and members, who were left behind to face the wrath of the interim government. The Awami League, which had rallied behind Hasina, was now scrambling to regain its footing.

Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, writes that Dr. Yunus, like the US government, had been critical of Hasina’s illiberal and anti-democratic policies.

Trump’s election campaign, particularly his “Make America Great Again” slogan, and his recent social media broadside against Bangladesh, should be viewed against the backdrop of US electoral politics, Kugelman opined.

Meanwhile, a verified Awami League Facebook page announced the observance of Shaheed Noor Hossain Day on November 10, marking the 1990 student movement when Noor Hossain was killed in police firing during the military rule of Gen. Hossain Mohammad Ershad. Less than a month later, Ershad was toppled and imprisoned for corruption.

The Awami League staged a protest rally at Noor Hossain Square in Dhaka, demanding the elimination of “undemocratic forces” (i.e., the interim government of Dr. Yunus) and the restoration of democracy.

An audio message, purportedly from Hasina, was circulated, urging protesters to hold up Trump’s portrait. Police detained several individuals carrying Trump’s posters.

The law enforcement crackdown on Awami League supporters with Trump signs drew criticism from Trump’s supporters on Twitter (X), with the handle @TrumpUpdateH posting: “Bangladesh police arrest Trump supporters for celebrating Trump’s victory.” Dr. Yunus’ office responded with a press release, refuting claims made by Indian media about the crackdown. According to Yunus’ media wing, there had been no arrests or crackdowns on Trump supporters.

The government has vowed to prevent Awami League protests. In its statement, it described the Awami League as a “fascist party” and declared that the political outfit would not be allowed to hold gatherings anywhere in Bangladesh.

Earlier, in an interview with the Financial Times, Dr. Yunus had stated that there was “no place” for Hasina’s “fascist” party in Bangladesh’s politics. He described the Awami League as exhibiting “all the characteristics of fascism.”

Dr. Yunus also reiterated that Bangladesh would not seek the exiled leader’s extradition from India until the International Crimes Tribunal delivered its verdict, where she faces charges of crimes against humanity.

The Financial Times reported that political rivals and human rights groups have accused the Awami League of rigging at least three elections (2014, 2018, and 2024), carrying out extrajudicial killings, and politicizing state institutions during Hasina’s 15-year rule (2009–2024).

Students who helped topple Hasina from power have called for the ban of the Awami League, and the government has already banned the student wing, Chhatra League, for its mobilization of armed vigilante groups like the "Helmet Bahini" during the Monsoon Revolution.

The government is currently debating whether the Awami League should be temporarily suspended from politics, required to reform, or banned entirely.

Regarding the democratization process, the government is unsure how to justify when a free, fair, and inclusive election should be held to form a political government.

The 84-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner speculated that the Awami League might disintegrate but emphasized that its fate would not be decided by his interim administration, as it is “not a political government.” Any decision regarding Awami League’s participation in future elections would be made by “consensus” among political parties themselves, he told Financial Times. “They have to decide their political space.”

Meanwhile, Awami League’s cyber warriors, loyalist intellectuals, journalists, and expatriate Bangladesh nationals have argued that, despite Hasina fleeing to India, she is still recognized as the Prime Minister of Bangladesh by New Delhi.

This prompted the Indian Ministry of External Affairs to clarify Hasina’s status. “We have repeatedly said that she (Sheikh Hasina) is a former Prime Minister; that is where it stands,” Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal told journalists last week.

However, India has yet to officially acknowledge that the people of Bangladesh have toppled Hasina’s government. This was evident in Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s statement in the Lok Sabha (the Lower House of Parliament) on August 6, the day after Hasina fled to New Delhi. Jaishankar failed to mention the Awami League government’s violations of human rights, including the killing of over 1,000 students and maiming nearly 30,000 people during the 36 days of July and August.

Jaishankar’s statement glossed over the brewing tensions in Bangladesh, the Awami League’s intolerance for dissent, and signs of Hasina’s regime turning into a classic autocratic one, writes Tanim Ahmed in The Daily Star.

Tanim concludes that the Indian establishment had built relations with the Awami League instead of with the people of Bangladesh, alienating the population in the process. The debacle created by India’s South Block was a result of putting all eggs in one basket—Hasina. Now that the eggs have been spoiled, the damage control appears to be ineffective.

Today, with Hasina and the Awami League ousted from power, India is seeing a dip in its popularity and facing increasing criticism.

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Published simultaneously in the Stratheia Policy Journal, November 11, 2024

Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). He is the recipient of the Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He can be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad