In victory, BJP must do soul-searching for loss in hill vote share

SANDIP C. JAIN, EOI, 12 June 2024 : The beautiful hills, forests, ravines and rivers of North Bengal have developed into a happy hunting ground for tourists from across the globe. Tourism has rapidly changed the economy and way of life of this area in drastic ways. 

Politically too, this area has for the past decade, become a happy hunting ground for the BJP which now considers this region as its own backyard. 

Having won seven of the eight Lok Sabha seats in the region in 2019 and six of the eight this time, north Bengal is a BJP fortress though the dream of the party of conquering the rest of West Bengal has received a setback. 

With a total of 12 seats in its tally from the state in the Lok Sabha poll from a total of 42, it has been a disappointing performance for the BJP in the rest of the 34 seats in south Bengal. 

The Darjeeling seat is one which the BJP has been dominating for the last three general elections and this time round was no exception. 

From Jaswant Singh to S S Ahluwalia to Raju Bista, the Darjeeling seat seems to have become a safe seat for the BJP over the years. Raju Bista, the sitting MP, has won the Darjeeling seat for a second time; though with a much reduced margin. 

There of course was no doubt that Bista would win again once his name was declared. Riding on the back of several developmental projects that he has brought into Siliguri, like the Balasan-Sevoke highway and the Bagdogra International Airport project, it was definite that the Siliguri voters would once again prefer Bista over Gopal Lama, the Trinamool Congress candidate. 

Bista of course did not have too much to show to the population of the Darjeeling hills by way of any development projects but then the hills anyway vote on sentiments, not development. Even on the subject of sentiments, there was a growing dissent against the BJP in the hills for the hill voters felt that they had been taken for a ride more times than they could digest. Despite exploiting the emotive issue of a separate state and tribal status for the remaining 11 communities, the BJP has nothing to show on this account. This was in some ways responsible for its reduced vote share in the hills. 

Bista polled 679,331 votes this time which was about 70,000 votes less than in the last elections. This figure shows that the BJP lost almost 9 percent of the votes to what it polled in 2019. In 2109 BJP polled 59.2 percent of the total votes cast whereas this year the percentage of the total votes it received was about 51.

Trinamool candidate, Gopal Lama on the contrary polled 500,806 votes which was a big rise from the 336,624 votes that the Trinamool candidate polled in the 2019 elections. 

With approximately 164,000 more votes this time, the Trinamool can take some solace in this year’s performance, despite losing the electoral battle. 

If this increase in Trinamool votes is analyzed, it clearly shows that it has gained both in the hills and in the plains. 

It has gained approximately 102,000 votes in the four assembly segments in the plains, Siliguri, Matigara, Phansidewa and Chopra; while in the three hill assembly segments of Kalimpong, Darjeeling and Kurseong it has gained about 62,000 votes. On a percentage basis, in 2024, Trinamool gained almost 60 percent votes in the hills over what it received in 2019. In 2019 it received a meager 103,500 votes in the hills while this time round they polled 165,494 votes. 

Percentage wise, the Trinamool received just 26.56 per cent votes in the Darjeeling seat in 2019 while getting 38.5 percent votes this time, recording a substantial increase of over 12 percent. 

An analysis of the BJP vote share in the hills shows that in 2019, the saffron party polled 344,100 votes from the hills while managing to get 258,978 votes this time. This shows a significant drop of over 85,000 votes. This means that the BJP has lost almost 25 percent votes this time in the hills in comparison to the last elections. 

The BJP leadership in the hills must take note of this big drop in vote share and try to analyze the cause of this vote loss. 

Of course the Anit Thapa led Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha which is in alliance with the Trinamool is now a stronger force in the hills than what it used to be earlier; with it stranglehold over the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration and the panchayat bodies in the hills but the loss of BJP votes has more to do with just this. 

The fact that the overall image of the BJP across the country has taken a beating on bread and butter issues of the public also has contributed to the BJP vote loss in the hills. 

With the BJP now no longer in absolute control of things at the Central level, having to share power with conservative politicians like Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar, the dream of the hills of a separate state or even scheduled tribe status for the 11 communities seems unlikely to be fulfilled in the near future. 

There is no way that the BJP will rock the already fragile boat that it will have to sail for the coming few years.
Another aspect that needs to be discussed is the better than expected performance of the Congress candidate this time. Polling 83,374 votes, Munish Tamang the Congress candidate supported by the CPI (M) did himself proud especially for the fact that he was brought into the election fray at the very last moment with almost no time to prepare.
Many in the hills had considered him to be the best of all the candidates in the election lineup. But the Congress has practically no grass-root infrastructure in the area. 

Hence he had always been just a marginal player in these elections. There is little doubt though that someone of his calibre, representing the hills in Parliament would have been a big plus for the entire Darjeeling region. 

The BJP will have to do some serious thinking if it wants to remain relevant in the hills in coming years. It has to realize is that the 258,978 votes it received in the hills this time were not just BJP votes but boosted by voters of the Gorkha National Liberation Front, the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, the Communist Party of Revolutionary Marxists and a host of smaller parties. 

 (The writer of this article is the Editor of Himalayan Times,Kalimpong)