Did BJP strike rate improve after Modi’s ‘anti-Muslim’ rhetoric? Here’s how it fared in all 7 phases

 Overall, BJP won 240 of 440 seats it contested in 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This meant a cumulative strike rate at 54.5 percent.

AMOGH ROHMETRA, The Print, 06 June, 2024: New Delhi: BJP’s strike rate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls held in seven phases over 44 days ranged from 35 to 70 percent, declining between the third and seventh phase, an analysis by ThePrint shows.

The Opposition attributed this decline to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “anti-Muslim” rhetoric and the BJP’s showing in the 77 seats it contested in the first phase. Of these 77, the BJP won 30 — a strike rate of 39 percent.

Also important to note is that Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has been a marginal player, was among the states where all seats went to the polls in the first phase. If one were to discount the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, of which it contested 23, BJP’s strike rate in the first phase was 55 per cent. 

Referring to the speech Modi made in Rajasthan’s Banswara on 21 April, two days after the conclusion of the first phase, the Opposition claimed then that Modi’s “anti-Muslim” rhetoric was prompted by low voter turnout and the BJP’s “poor” performance in the first phase.

As ThePrint reported earlier, there was also a decline in the mention of BJP’s “400 paar” slogan in Modi’s speeches after the first phase.

In the second phase, the BJP’s strike rate increased by 35 percentage points to 67 percent — it won 47 of the 70 seats it contested in this phase. This included all 20 seats in Kerala, of which the BJP secured one.

In the third phase, the BJP improved its strike rate further to 70 percent. This was highest for the BJP among all seven phases. Its strike rate in this phase can also be largely attributed to Gujarat, where it won 25 of 26 seats.

However, from the fourth phase onwards, the BJP’s strike rate began to decline — barring one exception. In the fourth phase, the BJP’s strike rate declined, by 15 percentage points from the previous phase, to 55 percent.

This decline continued in the fifth phase, where its strike rate was only 45 per cent. Of the 40 BJP candidates in the fray in this phase, only 18 won.

The sixth phase was where the party managed to stage a revival of sorts by winning 31 of the 51 seats it contested in this phase — a strike rate of 61 percent.

But it could not keep up the momentum in the seventh phase where its strike rate declined, by 26 percentage points from the previous phase, to 35 percent. It won only 18 of the 52 seats it contested in this phase.

Overall, the BJP won 240 (including Surat) of the 440 seats it contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections — a cumulative strike rate of 54.5 percent.

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)