Will they or won't they? Speculation mounts that the Gandhis won’t run in traditional strongholds

Country awaits answer to key questions on Amethi and Rae Bareli amid a lacklustre general election campaign

Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi: File picture.

Paran Balakrishnan, TT, 30.04.24 : In the vibrant tapestry of Indian politics, one burning question dominates: will they or won't they? The short answer seems to be “no.” Right now, it looks like the Gandhis will be playing safe and not taking any bold gambles.

The political landscape is abuzz with talk that the Gandhis won’t contest in their traditional strongholds, depriving the country of some much-needed political drama in an otherwise lacklustre general election campaign.

Just days ago, it seemed inevitable that Rahul Gandhi was gearing up for a political showdown in his one-time bastion of Amethi. It also seemed likely that Priyanka Gandhi was poised to make her political debut in Rae Bareli, the Nehru-Gandhi bastion.

Now, however, the rumour mill suggests a different narrative. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has hinted that the siblings may not throw their hats into what used to be the family’s pocket boroughs. The crucial question is whether failing to stand would represent a huge loss of face for the pair and blemish their political image.

The BJP's Smriti Irani, Amethi’s sitting MP, wasted no time seizing the limelight, staging a lively roadshow and ensuring a blaze of publicity when she finally filed her nomination. Yet, of the Gandhis, there was not the slightest sign. Moreover, Congress spokespersons remained conspicuously tight-lipped about the possibility of the Gandhis standing.

The reasons why the Gandhis might be having second thoughts aren’t clear. What's certain, though, is that the BJP has already begun taunting Rahul as a political coward who flees from the electoral battlefield. Party workers, who had been fired up by the prospect of Rahul's return to Amethi, now could find themselves disheartened and down in the dumps.

Could it be that the Gandhis are biding their time and hoping to catch their opponents off guard by putting out the word that they are not standing and then springing a big surprise. Alternatively, have they crunched the numbers and concluded that victory in Amethi and Rae Bareli is an uphill battle?

Beyond the electoral arithmetic, there are many sound reasons why they may choose to stay away from the fight in Uttar Pradesh which is now firmly under BJP control. Standing for election in Amethi and Rae Bareli would be a gruelling battle which would take all their energy and not leave them with the time to oversee the electoral contests in other parts of the country.

By contrast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is free to roam the country, going from one state to another because he is so utterly confident about his Gujarat home turf.

There are compelling plus points why the Gandhis should fight the election in Amethi and Rae Bareli. Uttar Pradesh is the centre of the Indian political world and a victory in these two constituencies would be a huge triumph and a slap in the face for the BJP and also Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.

Obviously, the opposite is also true. Losing in either of the constituencies would be a giant loss of face for the Gandhis. Also, there’s the unassailable fact that the Congress failed to win even one of the five assembly constituencies in the last state election. Gandhi lost to Irani in the last Lok Sabha election by around 55,000 votes. Could he make that up a second time round. Could the Gandhi name work its magic to win him the seat once again?

In the political calculus, Wayanad, while it’s a marginal district in India’s political consciousness, emerges as a better bet. It’s one of the safest Congress seats in Kerala from where it would be almost hard for Gandhi to lose. Wayanad’s combined Muslim and Christian population make up about 46 per cent of the hilly region’s population.

Also, the fact is that Priyanka talks a good game but she hasn’t had real political success. She was in charge of the Congress campaign in the last state elections. But the Congress performed miserably in the state elections and in many constituencies, the party’s tally barely made it to five figures. However, on the stump and making political speeches she is very impressive and a crowd-puller.

So, will the Gandhis choose to retreat or stand and fight? As the siblings weigh their options, the stakes couldn't be higher.