Normal to above-normal rainfall likely in north India in February: India Meteorological Department

The strong El Nino conditions -- abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are likely to weaken steadily and turn to ENSO neutral conditions by the end of the spring season

PTI, New Delhi, 31.01.24 : After experiencing a drier-than-usual December and January, north India is expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall in February, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Addressing a press conference on Wednesday, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said India may cumulatively experience above-normal rainfall in February.

Northwest India recorded just 3.1 mm of rainfall in January, the second lowest since 1901, the IMD reported.

North India, consisting of seven meteorological subdivisions, is most likely to receive above-normal rainfall (more than 122 per cent of the long period average) in February.

"Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February is most likely to be above normal (more than 119 per cent of the long period average)," Mohapatra said.

Based on data from 1971-2020, the long period average (LPA) of rainfall over north India and the country as a whole in February is 65 mm and 22.7 mm, respectively.

North India receives about 18 per cent of its annual rainfall between January 1 and March 31. Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, in particular, receive 31 per cent of their annual rainfall during this period.

The rainfall during these months is extremely crucial for rabi crops and water management in the region.

Normal to above-normal rainfall is predicted over northeast and central India. Below-normal rainfall is likely over south peninsular India.

Most parts of the country are likely to witness above-normal minimum temperatures in February while northwest, west central, northeast and parts of east-central India are likely to see above-normal maximum temperatures, according to the IMD.

Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely in most parts of peninsular India and parts of east-central India, the Met office said.

"Below-normal cold wave days are expected over some parts of central India during February," it said.

The strong El Nino conditions -- abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean -- are likely to weaken steadily and turn to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of the spring season.

Most models indicate a transition to La Nina conditions, considered favourable for the Indian southwest monsoon, around July-September, Mohapatra said.

Fog prevailed over the Indo-Gangetic plains from December 25 to January 30, one of the longest spells over the region in recent years, with meteorologists attributing it to fewer western disturbances affecting the region.