Karnataka election 2023 — eight lessons for the BJP, Congress, and all of India

 Kudos to the Congress for maintaining an edge over BJP in public perception. The only solace for the BJP is that it’s out of power but not out of the state.

SHEELA BHATT, The Print, 13 May, 2023 , The masterclass of Indian federal politics just got over. 

From Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the political geniuses of Karnataka to the states of India — all have many lessons to learn.

First, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has received a severe jolt with its defeat in the just-concluded Karnataka election. Now, it’s not in power anywhere in South and East India — and is unlikely to be for some time. The BJP rose to power in the state by mustering a majority in 2019. However, it failed to build credibility and gain people’s trust.

Since 2014, despite wielding enormous power and stability at the Centre, the BJP has not been able to conquer and settle well into new territories. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal are tough states to crack for the BJP. Even after nine long years of maintaining a stronghold in New Delhi and calling for ‘Hindi, Hindu, and Hindustan’, the party has been unable to make a deeper imprint in these states.

Second, the result of this election will impact the BJP’s game plan for the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The state has shown the limitation of using Hindutva politics and polarising voters, which the BJP did in many regions of India, if not all, for electoral gains. Though, of course, voters view state and Lok Sabha elections differently.

But look at how the Congress paid the BJP back in its own coin — the former polarised voters better than the latter in Karnataka. The Bajarangbali issue played out in such a manner that the Muslim voters got polarised to favour Congress. Even when the BJP criticised the Congress’ promise to ban the Bajrang Dal, in an attempt to bring Hindu voters into its fold and gain an edge over its 2018 vote share, it didn’t yield results. Since the PM himself took up this issue, it will be hard for the incoming Congress government to ban the organisation without consequences. It is unlikely to happen at least before the 2024 General election.

It’s quite clear now that in 2024, the BJP’s pan-India plank will veer around its best bet: nationalism, more than any other issue. And of course, there’s PM’s popularity too.

Change the formula

Third, the PM will now have to reinvent his most tried and tested election slogan for state assembly elections: the “double engine” sarkar. One decade is too long a time for a party to not change its narrative. The BJP will have to check if it’s time to dump the slogan — or else, the voters of some of the states will.

Despite the PM’s push for such a sarkar, the party headquarters didn’t make “double engine” look credible in states. In Karnataka, it wasn’t visible at all under outgoing CM Basavaraj Bommai’s wobbly governance.

When the Congress levelled charges of “40% sarkara (government that extracted a 40 per cent cut on every project)” against the Bommai government, BJP leaders claimed off the record that people don’t vote on corruption issues. The Congress percolated the 40 per cent sarkara charge down to everyday conversations and hence got a lead in the campaign.

Fourth, the significance of the Karnataka election results lies in the fact that now, the Congress will have access to enormous resources — in Indian politics, it means money — in a state that is one of the richest in India and has a high GDP. The games that politicians and parties play by manipulating legal loopholes, using secular-communal issues to their advantage, and acquiring financial clout will only be strengthened by having power in a big state like Karnataka. Let’s be real and accept that the new government in Karnataka will be thriving on the same, deeply entrenched corrupt system that the BJP has been accused of using.

Nonetheless, these “resources” will help the Congress to take on the BJP with renewed vigour in the next round of assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.

Indian politics sticks to its nature

Fifth, the Karnataka election results’ most positive message is one that goes to all of India: There are no alternatives to regional political leadership in Indian politics. Indian democracy works wonders only if regional leaders thrive along with national leadership. Modi is the undisputed, unparalleled, and unmatched towering figure in the BJP sky, but the party also needs smaller stars scattered all over India.

Modi hasn’t got much time to find, nurture, and lead these leaders. But it is one of the most urgent tasks before the PM — to bequeath his legacy to an expansive second rung of state party leaders. It is high time the mother body in Delhi share a pie of power with the branches and help state leaders survive in the long run. The same, though, stands true for the Congress as well in many other states.

Since 2014, except for UP CM Yogi Adityanath, Maharashtra Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, and a few other party leaders, not many new faces have emerged from the party fold. Even Yogi, however controversial, was a five-time MP before he became a CM.

Congress has won in Karnataka mainly because it had strong regional leadership, grassroots network, and a sturdy organisation. The BJP’s plan to retire former CM BS Yediyurappa and make way for a new generation of leaders turned out to be clumsy. BJP national general secretary BL Santosh’s aggression didn’t help the process.

Sixth, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP must be exasperated seeing how caste has been playing a pivotal role in Indian politics since 2014 despite the ruling party’s dharmic mantra of ‘Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan’.

With the Karnataka assembly election, the Congress has proved that its social base is one of the most formidable in the country. The party secured Muslim (14 per cent), Dalit (16 per cent) and Kurbas (8-9 per cent). Neither the Lingayats nor the Vokkaligas seem to have gone fully for Congress; the poor, though, have.

Congress made this election a class war, too, by making five generous promises in its manifesto. The promise to give Rs 2,000 per month to every woman head of the house has turned the poor toward the party. The poor in Karnataka have reminded the BJP that their focus is on immediate problems and local issues.

Many felt the Congress hawa

Seventh, throughout the campaigning period in Karnataka and even during the build-up to the results, no reporter or analyst in mainstream print or online media showed the BJP to be gaining an absolute majority, but hardly anyone explained why the undercurrent for Congress has been so strong.

That the Congress would win with a simple majority was expected by many.

Everything hasn’t gone the victor’s way, though. PM Modi’s campaign last week may have held the slide of the BJP and helped the party retain its vote share.

Nonetheless, kudos to the Congress leaders in Karnataka that throughout the aggressive campaign, their party maintained the edge over BJP in public perception. Their confidence and understanding of BJP’s strategy is also part of New India that Modi’s supporters keep talking about.

The only solace of the day for the BJP is that since it has not lost its vote share substantially, it’s out of power but not out of Karnataka.

Lastly, the people of the state have declared their verdict against the BJP, but now, the Gandhi family’s verdict on the chief ministerial position is awaited. It will be a tough call. Congress insiders claim that Siddaramaiah is supported only by Rahul Gandhi, whereas Mallikarjun Kharge, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and senior Congress leaders may prefer DK Shivakumar.

Since the Congress has travelled so far so well, the Kannadigas would expect the party to sail through the last passage of the 2023 election safely.

Sheela Bhatt is a Delhi-based senior journalist. She tweets @sheela2010. Views are personal.

(Edited by Humra Laeeq)