Why BJP looks all set to sweep aside all challengers in 2024

Regional parties sound the deathknell for rudderless Congress

All speculations on Modi and Yogi's not-so-friendly equation and Shah being their go-between have bitten the dust: Graphics: Tiyasa Das

Paran Balakrishnan   |   TT  |  10.03.22  : Where will the biggest parties be held tonight? At the BJP office where workers began flinging Holi colours at each other the moment it became clear they were heading for wins in the all-important Uttar Pradesh and three other states? Or will the even bigger party be held at the AAP headquarters and in Punjab where it was all about nonstop bhangra moves amidst the realisation they were now a national party?

For glum-faced Congress supporters there’s only one question that needs an almost instant reply: do they hang on to the Gandhi family despite being led from one debacle to another? Or will the letter-writers of the Group of 23 turn from ginger group to revolutionaries overthrowing the czars and the established order?

Other winners of the day? Certainly, Yogi Adityanath, who becomes the first Uttar Pradesh chief minister to win a second term. During the elections there were rumours that he and Prime Minister Narendra Modi had ceased to be on speaking terms and needed home minister Amit Shah to be their go-between. For now his future looks very secure.

But equally, there was no question that the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav had won the Best Loser of the Day award. He definitely deserved rich praise for taking his party from 47 seats to around 130. A giant leap forward but it didn’t get him near the winner’s podium.  

What were the winning factors today? It looked like the women’s vote ensured that the BJP stayed comfortably in front in Uttar Pradesh. It’s thought that a combination of free rations and the promise to ensure law and order kept the BJP ahead. And what about the aftermath of Covid-19? That appeared to have been a non-factor despite the huge number of deaths in the state. It also appeared certain that the Dalit vote has shifted from Mayawati to the BJP. It will be tough for the SP, which is seen as a Yadav party, to attract those voters. Should the credit for the win go to Modi or Adityanath? Almost certainly, it’s the Modi image that still wins the day.

In Goa, the voters of North Goa stuck with the BJP and the people of south Goa who voted against them were not sufficient to tilt the scales.

The brutal truth that became very visible today is that the only close contest was in Goa. All the others were clear victories. In Uttar Pradesh the BJP will almost certainly lose ground from around 303 to circa 265. But that’s still a comfortable distance from the halfway mark in the 403-seat legislature.

In Uttarakhand too, where the Congress was thought to be strong and where the BJP had changed three chief ministers in as many years, the ruling party pulled through and stayed well ahead. Its 48 seats was down from the previous election but still far ahead of the Congress Party’s 18. Adding to the Congress Party’s discomfiture was the fact that Harish Rawat, a former chief minister and thought to be the party’s most popular leader, lost his seat. Similarly, in Manipur, the BJP moved comfortably to the front defeating all-comers.

As for Punjab, the AAP is leading in 92 seats compared to the Congress Party’s pathetic 18. The Congress could be down by 59 seats from the last election. The Punjab voters also made it very clear that they were sick and tired of all their veteran politicians by seeing that they all lost their seats.

The casualty list included the SAD’s Prakash and Sukhbir Badal and Bikram Singh Majithia. From the Congress Party, former chief minister Amarinder Singh was shown the door at his family stronghold in Patiala. And the effervescent and always in a state-of-revolt cricketer-turned-politician Navjyot Singh Sidhu was no more successful than anyone else. Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi lost in both the seats where he stood. Analysts speculated that while he was brought in to win the Dalit vote but may have ended up losing the party the Jat Sikh voter.

For the BJP the inevitable thought is: now that they’ve won the dress rehearsal should they be reasonably confident that they can sweep aside all challengers in the 2024 general election and extend their rule all the way to 2029?

It certainly looks that way. The only party that the BJP really feared at the national level is the Congress because it has loyal voters across states. Despite all its setbacks it can still pull in 20 per cent and more of voters in states across the country. It can’t possibly be replaced by the AAP in the two years to the next election.

What’s more, challengers like the AAP, the Trinamool Congress and regional parties bite into the Congress vote and make it even easier for the BJP to push to the front of the pack. In Goa, the AAP has won two seats and the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) which is in alliance with the TMC has another two. Four independents also look to be winning four seats. These have almost certainly cut into the Congress vote. The MGP is expected to tie up with the BJP as it did after the last state election.

If the Congress had been able to add a few seats that the AAP and the regional parties have grabbed it would have been just behind the BJP. Instead, it looks far behind. The Index of Opposition Unity, a concept famously made famous by NDTV’s poll analysts over several elections, is nowhere near what’s needed to take down the BJP both in Goa and at a national level.

Other questions thrown up by today’s election results? Will Yogi Adityanath attempt to muscle his way to the top in 2024 shoving aside both Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah? He’s famously a man who plays to his own political agenda and doesn’t take rejection kindly.

Similarly, how will events unfold now that AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal has to share top billing with actor, singer and comedian Bhagwant Mann who looks certain to be Punjab’s next chief minister?

Inevitably, all eyes will now turn to Rahul Gandhi who bizarrely soon after the exit polls showed the Congress losing comprehensively, left the capital and headed to his constituency in Wayanad, Kerala. On the way to Wayanad he stopped in Calicut for a meal at Paragon restaurant, famed for its Kerala-style cuisine. If he was alarmed by the exit polls he certainly didn’t show it. The Congress can’t sack him because officially he doesn’t hold a post. But could it be time for the Gandhis to let go of the reins? That’s a political riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.