Time of turmoil : What lies ahead in Pakistan

Leaders of the Opposition, Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari and Fazal-ur Rehman, at a news conference in Islamabad, Pakistan

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Mehmal Sarfraz   |   TT  | 24.03.22  :  Last month, there was speculation whether a vote of no confidence would be moved against Prime Minister Imran Khan by the Opposition parties. This month saw the Opposition finally move the no-confidence motion on March 8 against Khan.

This move led to some panic within the government ranks but their statements were full of confidence. We saw speeches from the prime minister, saying that he wanted the Opposition to fall into his trap and move the no-trust motion. We also saw a lot of confidence within the Opposition camp about the chances of the no-confidence motion succeeding. Many raised questions about why the Opposition seemed so confident when a sitting government has an edge when it comes to defeating no-trust motions. The government’s allies were still with the regime but the Opposition claimed that it did not need them because it had the support of enough members of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf to dislodge the government.

An explosive interview given by the government’s top ally, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) leader, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, also set an ominous tone. The PML(Q) is the government’s ally both in Punjab and at the Centre. Elahi is Speaker of the Punjab assembly and his son is a federal minister. Elahi’s interview alluded to nappies and babies and how the government has had the support of crutches for the past three years but still could not deliver on key issues. He was quite obviously talking about the Establishment’s support for the government. This interview led to speculation whether the government’s allies will remain with Khan or vote against the prime minister.

The Opposition’s claims turned out to be true when interviews of around 10 dissident members of the PTI were aired on television screens last week from the Sindh House. The Opposition claimed to have around 24 PTI members in its camp. The numbers, we are told, have increased further.

What happened after these interviews was literally a meltdown of sorts from the government. We saw government functionaries abuse these members on live television. With the Sindh House described as a ‘brothel’ and dissident members called ‘pimps’ and ‘prostitutes’, the political discourse seems to have gone from bad to worse. On the one hand, the government went all out and labelled these members as traitors and accused them of selling their souls for money — supporters of the ruling party as well as a couple of its lawmakers even attacked the Sindh House — and on the other, it said that all would be forgiven if they returned to the party. This bizarre carrot-and-stick policy does not seem to be working so far. There are rumours that the government’s allies will also make a move closer to the date of voting on the no-confidence motion.

The Constitution says that the Speaker of the National Assembly has to call a session of the lower House of Parliament within 14 days of the submission of the requisition. But the Speaker has called a session on March 25, which is a few days more than the required 14 days. The Opposition is not happy with this decision and alleges that the Speaker has violated the Constitution. The government has also filed a presidential reference in the Supreme Court, asking the apex court for an interpretation of Article 63-A of the Constitution that is related to disqualification of parliamentarians in case of defection. It asked the court if a member who engages in defection could have his/her vote counted and whether he/she who commits defection would be disqualified for life. The hearing will commence today. Some say this reference is a delaying tactic being used by the government in light of the no-trust move while others say an interpretation is required so that the votes of these members can or cannot be counted, depending on what the court rules.

There was also talk of a national government led by Shahbaz Sharif in a recent interview. Sharif said that a national government should be formed by parties other than Khan’s PTI for five years. There is no national emergency that warrants the formation of a national government and that too without Khan, who is their main political rival. Some say that while Sharif talked about a five-year national government, this talk was about a situation where the vote of no confidence is successful and the next government is formed for one and a half years instead of going for early elections. Instead of taking responsibility for the tough economic decisions that will be taken in this case, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and other Opposition parties want to shirk away from the political consequences before the next elections, but this excuse does not sound valid. With an inevitable economic crisis on their hands, the Opposition parties would continue to blame the PTI government. But this policy has failed with the PTI blaming previous governments for their incompetence. If this is the real reason for bringing in a national government, it would lead to greater instability.

Now we are hearing of offers of early elections by the government. Whether or not they translate into anything concrete remains to be seen.

A report published in The News yesterday said, “The establishment has agreed to encourage the government and the opposition to sit together for an agreed national agenda for the political and economic stability of the country. If the two sides agree to sit and talk, they can also decide between them the future political roadmap, including early elections.”

Many are wondering that since it means that the vote of no confidence will not go ahead as planned, would the Opposition agree to it? But anything can happen during a time of political turmoil. What is also interesting is how fast things have moved within the span of a month: this shows that these moves had been in the offing for several months.

Whatever the outcome of the no-trust move, the country is going through a period of political instability. The Opposition has exercised its constitutional right to oust the government while the ruling party is also learning a hard lesson — its demand for one-sided accountability from only its rivals and its failure to keep members and allies on its side are now playing out on the political field. It is hoped that nothing untoward will happen as both the government and the Opposition are planning marches in the federal capital.

Mehmal Sarfraz is a journalist based in Lahore; mehmal.s@gmail.com