Act now: As the Omicron variant slowly spreads around the world, vital holes in India’s defence leave it vulnerable to a new surge in infections

 As the Omicron variant slowly spreads around the world, vital holes in India’s defence leave it vulnerable to a new surge in infections

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The Editorial Board   |  TT  | 15.12.21  : Two years into the Covid-19 pandemic, most countries with resources have significantly improved their ability to address fresh threats emerging from the coronavirus and its variants. India, too, appears to have learned some lessons from the devastating second wave. But as the Omicron variant slowly spreads around the world, vital holes in India’s defence leave it vulnerable to a new surge in infections. So far, only a few dozen cases of this variant have been reported nationally. But the Union government has been sketchy with details on the number of samples of Covid-positive cases that have undergone sequencing to verify which strain of the virus they represent. It is unclear if any agency is triangulating the data on individual Omicron cases, larger Covid-19 clusters, and the specific samples tested for the new variant. Gaps in sequencing could mask the scale of Omicron infections and the speed at which they might be spreading. Separately, reports suggest an absence of data-tracking correlations between Covid-19 hospitalizations and the patients’ vaccination status, making it harder to frame a policy on whom to prioritize — and how soon — for booster shots.

All of this is worrying as winter approaches, providing ideal weather conditions for the virus to spread. These shortcomings could leave the country both unaware of the nature of the challenge it faces and unprepared for any future wave of infections. Using modelling, researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad are predicting that cases from the Omicron variant could peak in India in late January; between 1.1 lakh and 1.5 lakh daily infections could occur at that time. That would be a sharp rise from the current situation where India is registering fewer than 10,000 cases a day — although it would be significantly lower than the peak of over 4 lakh daily infections during the second wave. Early evidence from South Africa — where Omicron was first detected — suggests that the variant might not lead to a drastic increase in hospitalizations. That would be a silver lining for India where thousands of families are still grieving from the devastation of losing loved ones because of the government’s mismanagement of the crisis in spring and summer. Yet, only time will tell how Omicron affects children, adults with waning vaccine immunity, and rural populations that are largely yet to take shots. And time is running out.