Shah, the oracle, is sure about Bengal polls; but is he? When fanning a caste war in Bihar doesn't work, thanks to police

Amit Shah: PTI

The Editorial Board   |  TT  |  11.04.21 : When the oracle speaks, there is little room for doubt. In the corridors of power in New Delhi, the only thing on the mind of each and every leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party is West Bengal. Party leaders are obsessed with this eastern state even though assembly elections have taken place in four other places. Many of them have even been heard repeatedly trying to speak in broken Bengali. Talk to anyone in the BJP office and they seem certain of wresting the state when the votes are counted on May 2. The confidence — overconfidence? — has been instilled by none other than the home minister, Amit Shah. The buzz in party corridors is that Shah is absolutely sure of winning Bengal. “When Amitbhai is sure then everybody feels there is no room for any doubt,” one BJP leader revealed. This leader, however, conceded that Shah had exuded similar certainty during the 2015 Bihar polls that the BJP lost badly when the results came in. Some old-timers in the BJP feel that Shah was only trying to demoralize the BJP’s opponent by claiming that the party would win more than 200 seats in Bengal. They fear that a Bihar-like outcome could be awaiting the over-excited party on May 2. Only time will tell if the oracle got it right.

Nitish Kumar: File picture

The plot thickens

Revenge is a dish best served cold. They say that the chief minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, is a believer of this ideology. This was evident when Rajkumar Singh, the lone member of legislative assembly from Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, joined the Janata Dal (United). Earlier, many top LJP functionaries had joined Kumar’s party. Senior politicians in the state point out that the chief minister is still nursing the humiliating wounds of the JD(U) being relegated to the third place in the Bihar assembly elections last year and holds Paswan responsible for it. He had openly opposed Kumar and put up National Democratic Alliance rebels as candidates in constituencies where the JD(U) was contesting to hurt its poll prospects. Is Kumar satisfied now? A senior JD(U) leader suggested that the game is not over — after all, the LJP has six Lok Sabha members.

Neighbourly duties

Both the Congress and the BJP deployed leaders from Karnataka in large numbers in neighbouring Kerala for the just-concluded assembly polls there. There was nothing wrong with the idea since proximity to each other’s politics could well make these leaders better equipped to handle the situation on the ground during campaigns. But there was something else that perplexed observers. The question that did the rounds in Karnataka was about how the BJP government led by BS Yediyurappa operated for over three weeks when quite a number of its ministers criss-crossed between the two neighbouring states. The joke in Congress circles is that at least Yediyurappa did not have to hold his cabinet meeting in Kerala.

Still simmering

Politicians keep fanning the fire of caste in Bihar to bake their bread. They are one of the reasons behind the state’s inability to shed the ignominiously divisive system. Five people were shot dead in Madhubani district on the day of Holi —  they were Rajputs, an influential caste known for its muscle power. The accused were from diverse castes. But several political parties termed it a caste war and tried to prove it. One political party sent a delegation of Rajput leaders to the village where the murders took place; they left no stone unturned to give it the desired colour. A former governor from another party from the same caste rushed there to meet the victims. The Opposition went hammer and tongs at the ruling combine to assert that the killings were part of a caste war. Many Rajput legislators from the ruling parties, too, started portraying the incident in a similar light. It seemed that caste friction would boil over. But the Bihar police arrested some of the top accused in the incident and averted all the attempts to revive the spectre of caste conflict looming over the state. The men in khaki made it clear that enmity over fish cultivation had resulted in the crime.

Political chameleons

The defection of the Tamulpur candidate of the Bodoland People’s Front, Rangja Khungur Basumatary, to the BJP just days before the third phase of assembly elections was one of the biggest developments of the recently-concluded polls in Assam because of its unprecedented and bizarre nature. This raised a lot of questions about the candidate, the parties involved, the poll process and the legality of such a move. But it was particularly hard for the voters with BPF chief, Hagrama Mohilary, campaigning in Tamulpur seeking votes for the nangal (plough), the BPF’s symbol. The party felt that since there was little time for course correction it was better to seek votes for the party. More so when the Election Commission turned down its plea to put off the polls owing to the defection.

The pre-poll defection has fuelled fears within the Opposition rank about this practice becoming a norm in the future, leading to losing polls even before votes are cast. They feel it is a good case study for the EC to come up with a preventive mechanism.

FOOTNOTE 

Optimism is an appreciable quality. But ‘Metro Man’, E Sreedharan, who contested on a BJP ticket from Palakkad in the Kerala assembly polls, renting an office and residence in the city is something quite unusual, especially with three weeks to go for the counting on May 2. The technocrat who audaciously declared that the BJP’s fortunes changed for the better with his entry is sure of winning. His party is not that confident since he is pitted against a popular Congress youth leader, Shafi Parambil. The question on even BJP supporters’ lips is what would he do with the properties if he loses.