Howdy Modi, govt track record at play? Vaccine talks: For Modi, Biden no cakewalk as with Trump

White House communicates with NSA Ajit Doval who is emerging as the go-to man for Indian diplomacy

Narendra Modi and Joe Biden.: File picture

Paran Balakrishnan   |   TT  |  New Delhi   |   27.04.21 : So what’s changed in India-US relations in the 100 days since Joe Biden took charge as president -- and not for the better? For starters, it seems that, like elephants, Biden doesn’t forget. That’s become evident in the initially tepid US response to India’s Covid-19 crisis.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi now is learning the hard way that it might not have been the smartest move to have enlisted Donald Trump as the warm-up act at his Howdy Modi rally in Houston two years ago. And Modi pitching for “ab ki baar, Trump sarkar” at the rally -- well, that was bound to rankle with any Democratic president occupying the White House.

It may come as no surprise then that there was conspicuous silence from both Biden and vice-president Kamala Harris (who bhakts continue to troll 24/7) immediately after India’s Covid cases exploded. In fact, the US at first declined to lift the embargo on the export of vital raw material needed to ramp up vaccine production in India.

Over the last couple of days, the White House has changed its position and has been busy assuring India of “America’s full support to provide emergency assistance and resources” in tackling the surging Covid crisis. But that was only after France, Germany and even Pakistan and China were quick to offer aid packages as the second coronavirus wave mercilessly swept the country. 

Biden finally spoke to Modi on Monday after India’s new Covid infections hit record levels for the fifth straight day.

“Just as India sent assistance to the United States as our hospitals were strained early in the pandemic, we are determined to help India in its time of need,” Biden tweeted. 

But even that supportive statement was an uncomfortable reminder of India’s humiliatingly dizzy descent from being “the pharmacy to the world” benefactor to a supplicant. One moment, India was being hailed as the global vaccine powerhouse while the next it was scouring the globe for medical supplies.

The US has said it will “immediately” supply raw materials urgently required for making vaccines, reversing its initial refusal. It’s also promised to supply badly needed oxygen generation equipment as well as diagnostic tests, treatments, ventilators and protective gear.

What’s going on? Clearly, there’s a general lack of enthusiasm in the White House for Modi and Harris has been at pains to distance herself from the Hindutva brigade in the country where her mother was born. The White House only stepped up to the plate after a very noticeable interval and before it antagonised the Indian-American community.

Another intriguing thing is who the White House communicated with when it decided to step up its response to India’s unprecedented health catastrophe. It was US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan who conveyed on Sunday the United States’ “solidarity with the people of India” to his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval. This could signal a tilting of the diplomatic scales in Delhi toward the NSA and Doval at the expense of the ministry of external affairs (MEA) and its minister S. Jaishankar, observers say.

“Power in the US has always been in the White House, except under Trump. But Jaishankar can only talk with the State Department. This effectively puts him on a lower grade,” said one senior diplomatic advisor. “Unless the NSA is brought under the MEA, as Kissinger was under Nixon, the foreign minister will be a superior clerk,” he added.

In fact, Doval may be emerging now as “the go-to man in Indian diplomacy, a sort of Pranab Mukherjee in foreign affairs,” said the same observer. Both Jaishankar and Doval were working on their US counterparts to accede to India’s Covid assistance request, but it is noteworthy that the White House chose to respond to the NSA chief, following the same line of communication as under US presidencies prior to Trump’s, he said.

Biden has made his displeasure clear, but the fact is that he is very mindful of the mutual interests Washington and New Dehli share in squaring up to Chinese aggression. There’s been an urgent move to strengthen the Quad, the alliance of India, the US, Japan and Australia, that aims to face down the Chinese and halt its efforts to dominate Asia and be a global superpower on par or stronger than the US. 

The new US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin underscored the depth of Washington’s concerns about China’s muscular assertiveness when he made his first international trip a swing through Japan, South Korea and then India. Here, significantly, he met Modi along with Doval.

Austin’s visit came after a Quad summit between Modi, Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison. The fact it took place during the pandemic, even though over videolink, showed the importance the Americans attach to the Quad.

So it is clear that India and the US continue to need each other, and maybe more than ever. But Biden isn’t about to let Modi go scot-free without reminding him about his cardinal sin of backing the wrong horse. “Biden will give Modi what India needs, definitely, but he will make Modi stew in the juice of his indiscretions,” the observer said. 

Another element to note is that while Biden has made strong statements in favour of multilateralism, he has by no means abandoned Trump’s “America First” credo, said a senior White House watcher. “There’s a sense that the US will remain inwardly fixated” and keep marching to its own drummer, he said.

That was underlined when the US destroyer the USS John Paul Jones sailed through what India calls its exclusive economic zone. The US then issued a statement which bluntly said America was asserting “navigational rights and freedoms,” and, adding insult to injury, emphasised that the voyage had been made “without requesting prior permission.”

The changing of the guard in the White House has other implications too. Both Biden and Harris must ensure that the Democratic administration doesn’t alienate the party’s liberal base so Modi’s actions on human rights, press freedom and preserving democratic institutions will be under scrutiny absent during the Trump years.

Modi is going to find it won’t be the same cakewalk with Biden after walking hand-in-hand with Trump at the Houston rally which was attended by tens of thousands of Indian-Americans who traditionally lean Democrat. Biden is showing Modi that “diplomacy is the art of the possible and not an election rally,” said the observer.