Congress down in Kerala, Assam - Exit polls give Mamata the edge, predict landslide win for Stalin in Tamil Nadu

India Today-Axis My India survey the only one to forecast that TMC might fall short on numbers

Mamata Banerjee.: File picture

Paran Balakrishnan   |  TT  |  New Delhi   |  29.04.21: West Bengal could be a cliffhanger that’s too close to call and the BJP has swept past the Congress in Assam, according to exit polls. As expected, the LDF is likely to win big over the Opposition UDF in Kerala and in Tamil Nadu, as expected, the DMK will take power after decimating the ruling AIADMK, the polls say.

The India Today-Axis My India poll was the sole one to forecast that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee might fall short on the numbers to form a government. The Poll of Exit Polls combining most of the exit poll results barring the Indian Today survey, gave the TMC 157 seats, the Left Front and the BJP 121 seats and gave other parties one seat.

To form a government the TMC needs 148 seats. Looking at some of the individual exit polls, the ABP News-C Voter gave the TMC and allies 152 to164 seats, the Left 14 to 25 and the BJP 109 to 121 seats. The Republic TV-CNX gave the TMC and allies 128 to 138, the Left 11 to 21 and the BJP 138 to 148.

Meanwhile, in Assam, the Poll-of-Exit Polls forecast that the BJP would retain power in the state. It gave the BJP 75 seats, Congress 50 seats and other parties. The BJP needs just 64 seats to form a majority.  The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted that the BJP would pull in 75-85 seats which would be close to its performance in the 2016 legislative assembly elections.

In Kerala, the Poll of Exit Polls gave the LDF 76 seats, Congress 62 and the BJP two seats. However, the India Today-Axis poll showed a huge sweep with the LDF winning 104-120 of the 140 legislative seats. Looking at individual polls, the P-Marq exit gave the Left Front 72 to 79 seats against 60 to 66 for the Congress. In that poll, the BJP is seen as winning zero to three seats, The Republic TV-CNX Kerala exit poll pointed to a similar outcome with 72 to 80 seats for the LDF and 58 to 64 seats for Congress. The poll projected 1-to-5 seats for the BJP.

Personal triumph for Pinarayi

No party or alliance has won two terms in a row in Kerala and if the LDF wins, as predicted, it will be seen as a huge personal triumph for Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and his handling of the pandemic and also of the Kerala floods in 2018.  The BJP is expected to win between 0-3 seats according to most polls but could hold on to the 12 per cent vote share which it had got in the last state elections.

46% root for Stalin as CM 

In Tamil Nadu, the exit polls pointed to a landslide victory for the DMK and allies, much as had been expected. The Poll of Polls gave the DMK 171 seats and the AIDMK just 58.  India Today-Axis My India gives the DMK an even bigger victory with between 175-185 votes out of 234 assembly seats. Such a victory would be a huge victory for DMK leader M. K. Stalin. This is the first Tamil Nadu election in which the two state giants, M. Karunanidhi who died in 2018 and J. Jayalalithaa who lost her life in 2016, are absent.  This time, 46 per cent of the people polled said they wanted Stalin as the next chief minister. Commentators offered the explanation that the AIADMK had no giant leader unlike in the past.

BJP upper hand in Assam

In Assam the polls show that the BJP will win big in Upper, Central and North Assam. The Congress, by contrast, has done well in the Barak Valley and Lower Assam. The India Today-Axis My India poll also showed that most voters were happy with the Chief Minister Sarbhanda Sonowal. That could present a dilemma for the BJP because the Deputy Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has indicated that he wants to be the next chief minister and will not take any other role. He has also signalled that he doesn’t want to shift to the Centre.

The huge surprise of the evening came from the India Today-Axis My India poll which showed a big win in Puduchery for former chief minister N. Rangaswamy, leader of the NR Congress and the BJP with which it is allied. India Today-Axis predicted the NR Congress-BJP would win between 20-24 seats out of 30.

For the Congress, the exit polls offer a bleak picture because it is expected to perform poorly in Kerala and it doesn’t appear to be winning in Assam. It looks likely to be defeated badly in Puduchery. The fact that Rahul Gandhi is an MP from Kerala’s Wayanad district doesn’t appear to have helped it in the state.