Covid: Centre asks states to curb festive mass gatherings- limiting or doing away with mass gatherings amid the rising daily new Covid-19 cases in 17 most populated states.

The ministry advised to 'consider imposing local restrictions in the public observation' of festivals such as Holi, Shab-e-Barat, Bihu, Easter and Eid-ul-Fitr

The seven-day average daily case counts — a superior trend indicator than daily new cases — have increased by 1.3-fold to 5-fold in 19 of India’s top 20 most populated states over the past three weeks, increasing India’s daily count from 15,000 on March 1 to over 47,262 on March 24: File picture

G.S. Mudur   |   TT   |   New Delhi   |   25.03.21  : The Union health ministry on Wednesday asked the states to consider restricting the public observation of festivals and limiting or doing away with mass gatherings amid the rising daily new Covid-19 cases in 17 of India’s 20 most populated states.

The ministry has advised the states to “consider imposing local restrictions in the public observation” of festivals such as Holi, Shab-e-Barat, Bihu, Easter and Eid-ul-Fitr, and “limit or do away” with gatherings.

“Any laxity at this point in ensuring strict adherence to various protocols issued by the health ministry to contain the spread of Covid-19 may result in losing the benefits the country has gained so far in managing the virus,” additional secretary Arti Ahuja wrote to all the states.

The health ministry had earlier this week written to Uttarakhand, cautioning that the observed counts of Covid-19 cases among pilgrims and residents at the ongoing Kumbh Mela could rapidly rise into a surge.

The seven-day average daily case counts — a superior trend indicator than daily new cases — have increased by 1.3-fold to 5-fold in 19 of India’s top 20 most populated states over the past three weeks, increasing India’s daily count from 15,000 on March 1 to over 47,262 on March 24.

The trends in Maharashtra and Punjab are of “grave concern,” health secretary Rajesh Bhushan said on Wednesday. In Maharashtra, the average daily count has soared from 7,900 to over 30,000, while that in Punjab has increased five-fold from 566 to 2,375 since March 1.

Health officials have exhorted the public to adhere to safety protocols such as wearing masks and avoiding crowds. “A large proportion of the population in India is still susceptible — 60 per cent in some places, 75 per cent in other areas — they need to take precautions,” said Vinod Paul, chair of the national expert group on Covid-19 vaccines.

India’s emerging second wave has surprised some public health experts who say they had thought that the first wave that peaked with about 97,000 daily new cases in mid-September had left behind such a large fraction of people infected that a second wave was unlikely.

“I was mistaken,” said T. Jacob John, a senior clinical virologist and former professor at the Christian Medical College, Vellore. “I hadn’t expected a sharp surge of the kind we’re seeing in many states now. But if, as we had assumed, most people are already infected and this wave is driven by infections in susceptible people, we should see a much sharper rise and a shorter lasting wave.”

Double mutant

A new coronavirus variant possessing a “double mutation” detected in samples from Maharashtra has also turned up in samples from Delhi, Punjab and other states but there is no evidence that it is contributing to the current surge in infection, health officials said.

The variant with two mutations, designated E484Q and L452R, has triggered concern because E484Q has been shown to allow the virus to escape immune responses and L452R has been found to be more infectious and has contributed to large outbreaks in California.

A nationwide coronavirus genome sequencing effort coordinated by the National Centre for Disease Control, New Delhi, with nine partner institutions has detected the E484Q-L452R double mutation in 206 samples from Maharashtra, 9 samples from Delhi and 3 samples from Gujarat.

But NCDC director Sujeet Singh said there was no evidence that it was associated with the surge in Maharashtra or any other state.

“Even in Nagpur, where the double mutation made up 20 per cent of the samples, infection patterns suggest they came from areas affected the least during the first wave last year,” Singh told The Telegraph. “So the variant was found in a pool of population that was the least exposed and thus highly susceptible to the infection.”