West Bengal: October Covid case spike reflects pre-Puja virus curve trend

The number of positive cases is rising daily. It is expected to go up further as Puja celebrations and pandal-hopping begin. This may continue till after Diwali and even beyond as coronaviruses become more active in winter,

Sumati Yengkhom | TNN | 18 Oct 2020 | KOLKATA: With the number of new Covid cases hovering above the 700-mark daily for over 10 days now, the first fortnight of October has recorded more cases than the corresponding period of the previous months during the pandemic. Health care experts see no respite from the Covid onslaught and said the graph could shoot up after the Puja.

Between October 1 and 15, Kolkata logged a total of 11,835 cases. Doctors had heaved a sigh of relief in August-end and early September. However, cases started rising gradually from the second half of September after Mahalaya and Ganesh Puja. With Durga Puja shoppers thronging markets and malls and some political gatherings aggravating the situation, the rise has now turned worse. 

“The number of positive cases is rising daily. It is expected to go up further as Puja celebrations and pandal-hopping begin. This may continue till after Diwali and even beyond as coronaviruses become more active in winter,” said Bhaskar Narayan Chaudhury, microbiologist at Peerless Hospital. 

From 10,116 cases in the first fortnight of August, the number had dropped to 7,562 in September during the corresponding period while in July it was 4,990. 

“Going by the current trend, the number could rise as high as double of what we are seeing at present. It is going to be quite messy,” said infectious diseases control specialist Debkishore Gupta. 

Gupta blamed Covid fatigue and misinformation on social media contributing to behavioural changes in people causing the current surge. “People have become so indifferent to the virus that they are exhausted. There is complete lack of discipline,” he added. 

Despite a high discharge rate, which is a little above 87%, the number of active cases in Kolkata has shot up to 7,349 on Saturday. This was only 5375 in the month beginning. 

While occupancy at Covid wards of private hospitals is between 90% and 100%, the four big government Covid hospitals together have an occupancy of 78% at present. Medical College, MR Bangur, CNCI and NRS together have 1,865 Covid beds. 

“I strongly believe that good sense will prevail among people and they will adopt maximum precautions. Otherwise, our hospitals may see an overwhelming number of sick patients after Puja and the healthcare system may even be paralysed,” cautioned Chaudhuri.