The China conundrum - Domestic compulsions may have led to Ladakh misadventure

Ashok Ganguly, TT, 20.06.20: The recent belligerence of China against Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Australia and now India has an important domestic context.

China’s decision to move from a fixed-term presidency to that of a lifetime with Xi Jinping may not have been as smooth and seamless as it has been publicly made out to be.

The sheer volatility and unpredictability of President Trump’s actions, and sanctions against China, must have had a bigger impact than what China is prepared to admit. It would be reasonable to assume that China may have been unprepared for the shifts in international trade and commerce which had benefited it in the last 50 years.

The rise of China as a strategic economic beneficiary of being the second most powerful nation has reached a tipping point; it is now seen as a serious threat to the future world order. China’s global Belt Road project was planned, and is being executed, with the aim to further advance its strategic advantage and eventually challenge the economic and trade dominance of the OECD. Its unilateral control over the South China Sea was the preamble to eventually dominate the Indian ocean and make it “safer” for movement of trade and commerce.

As a part of its long-term goal, apart from Pakistan, China’s all-weather clients now include Sri Lanka, Nepal and Myanmar, all strategically surrounding India.

In the midst of advancing President Xi’s grand vision, the pandemic triggered by Covid-19 became a serious unanticipated hurdle.

China’s record of economic growth was already facing head winds due to trade sanctions alongside some domestic disquiet regarding the lifetime role of President Xi. Additionally, China has to now face serious economic barriers posed by Covid-19.

The continuous improvement in the living standards of every section of Chinese society had been taken for granted by succeeding generations. China’s recent economic slowdown, exacerbated by the pandemic, is reported to be spreading a sense of unhappiness among large sections of the population. To divert attention, China has, as usual, put a lid on its domestic irritants, at least for the time being.

China’s dominance of the South China Sea and the unhappiness of Vietnam, Philippines, South Korea and Singapore have now been exacerbated by the clampdown in Hong Kong and aggressive threats to Taiwan. These are diversionary moves by China.

Unfortunately, China had not anticipated the reappearance of Covid-19 in and around Beijing. In a coordinated move, China may have also triggered increasing hostile activities by Pakistan, Nepal and itself along India’s borders to further divert attention from its uncomfortable, domestic problems.

Its recent aggression across the LAC was surprising, considering the frequent bilateral meetings between India’s NSA and its Chinese counterpart and their attempts to move forward on issues concerning the LAC. Thus, China’s Ladakh misadventure seems more to do with its domestic problems rather than a very well thought out strategy to fix India.

In 2020, India will have to deal decisively with these unprovoked aggressions. Until India is able to put a price on the border misadventures of China and its clients, matters will remain unresolved.