‘Arrogance’ beaten 3-0 by ‘humbler’ Trinamul One, two, three, say goodbye to BJP: Mamata

Devadeep Purohit , TT, 29.11.19, Calcutta : The Trinamul Congress on Thursday handed the BJP a 3-0 rout in the Bengal Assembly by-elections, bearing out Mamata Banerjee’s post-general-election claim that the battle was far from over despite the BJP bagging 18 Lok Sabha seats from the state.

Trinamul won all the three seats that went to the polls, picking up Kharagpur Sadar and Kaliaganj, which it had never won before, along with Karimpur.

“The BJP’s arrogance has cost them,” the chief minister said in her initial reaction before pledging that her party would be “humbler” and “work harder” for the state’s development.

“The message is clear: Ek, dui, tin, BJP-ke biday din (One, two, three, say goodbye to BJP),” Mamata added, the excitement in her voice underlining her relief.

Trinamul sources said the 3-0 scoreline was a “pleasant surprise”, especially as the BJP had led from Kharagpur Sadar (West Midnapore) and Kaliaganj (North Dinajpur) by 42,000 and 58,000 votes, respectively, in the Lok Sabha polls.

Six months on, Trinamul has won the two seats by 20,853 and 2,414 votes, turning the margins around by 60,000-plus in either constituency. In Karimpur (Nadia), where Trinamul had led the BJP by 15,000 votes in the Lok Sabha polls, Thursday’s victory margin was 23,910.

Not too much should be read into by-election results from three of the state’s 294 Assembly constituencies, with differing demographic profiles, but it seems safe to draw the following conclusions:

• Trinamul fights back: To many, including some Trinamul insiders, the Lok Sabha results signalled the end of the road for the party. A defiant Mamata, however, kept insisting that one swallow doesn’t make a summer and swatted away the persistent boasts from state and central BJP leaders that they were on their way to power in Bengal. Still, Mamata needed something to convince the people, and she got it on Thursday.

• NRC the key: “Will it work?” was the question in political minds when Mamata set herself against the BJP’s plans to repeat across the country an Assam-like exercise to update the National Register of Citizens. As she kept reaffirming her resolve not to allow the update in Bengal and promised that not a single person would be driven out of the state, some Trinamul insiders wondered whether she was overplaying the issue.

Thursday’s results, especially the victories in the border constituencies of Kaliaganj and Karimpur, both of which have sizeable minority populations, suggest she was right to stand by people frightened by a prospective NRC exercise. The results suggest that both Hindu and Muslim immigrants have voted for Trinamul.

While the BJP is the undisputed main Opposition in Bengal, it has failed to narrow the gap with the ruling party. Over the past few months, Bengal BJP honchos had been busy predicting victory in 2021 instead of building on the foundation the general election results had provided their party in the state.

Factional fights and a disconnect between the state and central leaders haven’t helped. While Mamata was ratcheting up her anti-NRC campaign, state BJP leaders were addressing news conferences in Calcutta. Their defeats in Kaliaganj and Kharagpur Sadar underscore how unprepared they were.

With the 2021 battle still a year and a half away, and with more than 100 civic bodies set for polls next year, it’s too early to predict which way Bengal will swing. Mamata’s entreaty to supporters to stay humble in victory indicates she has learnt from the Lok Sabha shock.

State BJP leaders on Thursday tried to put up a brave face and brazen out the by-election results, which may not be the ideal strategy if their party wants to wrest the seat of power.

What is indubitable is that these three results have challenged all claims of 2021 being a foregone conclusion, underlining that the battle for Bengal is far from over.