India braces for 'major terror attack' as de-escalation talks with Pakistan falter

Indrani Bagchi | TNN | Oct 9, 2016, NEW DELHI: Pakistan's NSA, Nasir Janjua talked "de-escalation" with Ajit Doval last week, but at the top levels of the Indian government there is a growing belief Pakistan could retaliate against last week's surgical strikes with a big terror attack in India in the coming weeks.

India will watch out for two things - first, whether Pakistan will cross the Uri threshold or will they stay in a low-flight zone of a continuous low intensity attacks with casualties in single digits, true to the death-by-thousand-cuts strategy.

Another key development the Indian side will watch out for is whether Pakistan army chief Gen Raheel Sharif stays on after November or retires. According to India's assessment, if the Pak general's term is extended, it would signal that Pakistan is preparing for a sustained military conflict with India.

What is clear is that after the September 29 surgical strikes inside PoK, the LoC is no longer sacrosanct for India. The strikes were intended to ensure that terrorists in their launch pads across the LoC in PoK, watched over by the Pakistan army, would no longer feel comfortable. That was the immediate aim.

The longer term aim was to signal to Pakistan that it would have to adjust to a 'new normal' - the 'new' was established last week, the 'normal' will have to be built up over time. Pakistan will now have to factor in a possible Indian response, where surprise and speed will be the key, and unpredictability the usual, where the LoC will matter less and less.

For instance, Pakistan did expect an Indian response afte the Uri attack and had beefed up certain key posts. India chose other posts to attack, and that made the difference.

In the past few years, Pakistan controlled the threshold - its nuclear status - and everything below that threshold was fair game. This ranged from small strikes to the big ones in Mumbai (2006 and 2008). Everytime, India fulminated but never went beyond a diplomatic response, creating the terror-talks cycle that have been the norm for the past decade or so. Both India and Pakistan had settled down into this cycle, India's helplessness deepening.

Pakistan has unleashed the first burst of anger on the LoC, with an almost unrelenting stream of infiltration attempts and cover fire by the army. On Friday night itself, there were three infiltration attempts in Handwara, J&K. India's defensive posture has intensified as it fends off the fire.

There are growing differences between the Pakistan civilian establishment and the military-ISI ruling elite over India and terrorism, so the much vilified report in a Pakistan newspaper is not untrue. But the latter is not yet ready to give up the terror infrastructure, because the costs so far are still something Pakistan can absorb. India wants to raise those costs with time and sustained action.