It's TMC vs TMC in many seats

Saikat Ray, TNN, Mar 10, 2016, Kolkata: Divided, they are no match for the ruling Trinamool Congress. But taken together, their votes can spring a surprise in the city that went with BJP in Bhowanipore in the last Lok Sabha polls. This time, both Trinamool Congress and the Left-Congress combine are eyeing the votes that will slip out of the BJP kitty in key seats like Shyampukur, Chowringhee, Kolkata Port, Bhowanipore, Ballygunge and Rashbehari.

Strangely, the fate of the big rivals depends on whether BJP can retain the votes it got in the Modi wave in 2014. In all these seats, BJP polled 36,000 to 47,465 votes. The question is where will a portion of these votes go in the event of a slide in the BJP vote share. This could be why Mamata Banerjee kicked off her campaign from Shyambazar on Tuesday.

Shyampukur

More than anti-incumbency, what bothers Mamata is Trinamool infighting. A case in point is Shyampukur. Trinamool ministers Sadhan Pande and Sashi Panja do not see eye to eye - a legacy since the days of Ajit Panja. Councillors in the area are divided on these lines and the tension has often spilled on to the streets, embarrassing the Trinamool. A clash broke out just three days before Durga Puja last year, forcing a Trinamool MP to ask Shyampukur police to quell tension. Mamata has to lead the poll battle with a section of squabbling generals here. The wrangling match cast a shadow on the Kolkata municipal polls in 2015 when independent candidate Mohan Gupta defeated MMiC Partha Pratim Hazari from ward 17 under this assembly seat. Sashi Panja who threw her weight behind Hazari is the Trinamool candidate from Shyampukur.

Kolkata Port

Trinamool leader Firhad Hakim had a comfortable margin of 25,033 votes here in 2011. But then, he had Congress with him. Fast forward to 2014 Lok Sabha polls, and Trinamool ends up with a deficit if Nationalist Congress and Left votes are taken together. But, there are factors beyond this arithmetic that may bother Trinamool. The assembly poll has come as an opportunity for local Trinamool leader Ram Pyare Ram - a six-time MLA and councillor for the 10th time to avenge his cause. Ram has been denied a ticket. Not only that, his wife Hema had to concede defeat to Firhad loyalist, independent candidate Mohammed Anwar in ward 80, in the civic polls. Anwar has since joined Trinamool. Ram Pyare Ram holds sway in ward 79 as councillor and also has considerable clout in ward 80. With non-Bengali voters comprising a sizeable part of the electorate in this constituency, Ram eyes a transfer of part of the 38,000 votes polled by BJP in 2014 to the jote candidate this time.

There are other factors as well. CPM's Belquis Begum has influence in ward 75 while Congress councillor Akhtar Nizam holds sway in ward 135. Firhad can rest easy in four of the eight wards in this seat.

Cossipore-Belgachhia

The Trinamool writ runs in this north Kolkata seat. Muscle power, fuelled by constant war between supply syndicates led by Trinamool MLA Mala Saha and Trinamool councillor Sita Jaiswara dominates politics in this seat. The sprawling highrises coming up along both sides of BT Road fuel the syndicate raj where the opposition has minimum presence. Here, too, Trinamool's main rival is Trinamool itself. The arrest of Swapan Chakrabarty, known to be close to a councillor, is a recent case in point. According to Trinamool insiders, order for the arrest came from the CM herself. Wards under this seat witnessed a one-sided battle in the 2015 civic polls with allegations of booth jamming and violence reported from this area. Residents look up to the central forces to be able to cast their votes this time.

Ballygunge

The Ballygunge constituency is not the 'Ballygunge' you see on a shopping spree. Ekdalia, Mandeville Gardens, Cornfield Road, Ballygunge Gardens and Fern Road are only a part of the Ballygunge assembly seat that includes parts of Park Circus, Karaya, Picnic Garden and Tiljala. Veteran Trinamool politician Subrata Mukherjee could have a smooth ride but for the faction feud between Iqbal Ahmed and Javed Khan. Iqbal, the deputy mayor, had given Trinamool a scare in ward 66. Trinamool insiders hope that Iqbal won't let Mukherjee down, but they are not sure about Javed Khan and his son, who is now a councillor. RSP's Nivedita Sharma holds sway in ward 65.

The infighting apart, some other constituencies - such as Bhowanipore and Rashbehari - are also under Trinamool scanner due to the BJP influence. BJP had polled 41,000 votes in Rashbehari. Trinamool veteran Shobhandeb Chattopadhyay has been nursing Rashbehari voters for long and also has a rapport with BJP supporters, but he isn't on good terms with some of his own party councillors, particularly in New Alipore that comes under minister Aroop Biswas's fief. Trinamool infighting erupted on the streets near Durgapur camp just days after some Trinamool supporters invited Chattopadhyay to inaugurate a Durga Puja in the area. Chattopadhyay holds sway over four of the seven wards.