Pray prediction is wrong

TT, New Delhi, June 2: The national weather agency has downgraded its forecast for the 2015 monsoon to "deficient" from "below normal", prompting a central minister's exhortation to seek divine intervention to prove the prediction wrong.

"I have to say this with a heavy heart that as per our revised forecast, India will receive 88 per cent of rainfall of the long-period average, plus or minus 4 per cent," minister for earth sciences Harsh Vardhan said today.

"We have been working to ensure that the forecast is right. But this time let's pray to God that the revised forecast does not come true," the minister added.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) also revised the date of the monsoon's arrival over the Indian subcontinent to June 5, with the atmosphere and wind conditions still keeping the rain away from the Kerala coast where they were expected by June 1 latest.

This is the first time in 10 years that the IMD's initial forecast for the monsoon's onset date over Kerala has failed. Every year between 2005 and 2014, the actual date of onset had fallen within the eight-day window initially forecast by the IMD.

"Two things are delaying the monsoon's arrival -storms originating from the Mediterranean region moving over the subcontinent and a high pressure zone over the Arabian Sea," said D. Sivananda Pai, director of long-range forecasts with the IMD, Pune.

"This western disturbance regime is strong but the monsoon itself hasn't gained enough strength to move in," Pai added.

Weather scientists say the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggest that the phenomenon called El Nino - which has been earlier, but not always, linked to adverse performance of the monsoon - has established itself and is likely to intensify during the monsoon season. "The El Nino is a factor influencing the current weak strength of the monsoon," Pai said.

In its second long-range forecast for the monsoon issued today, the IMD said there was a 66 per cent probability that the rainfall would be deficient (below 90 per cent of the long-period average) and 27 per cent probability that it would be below normal.

The forecast predicts that the northern and northwestern states are likely to be worst hit with a severe 15 per cent deficient rainfall, while the central, eastern and northeastern states are expected to face a 10 per cent deficit. Rainfall in the southern states is expected to be 8 per cent below the long-period average, the IMD said.

Senior weather scientists have pointed out that such long-range, region-wise forecasts do not provide any information on how rainfall will be distributed in specific areas of the country. They added that even during the deficient monsoon years, pockets of the country might receive normal rainfall.

India's agricultural-meteorology community has rolled out contingency plans in 580 districts across the country that are intended to guide state authorities and handhold farmers into responding appropriately to either delayed or deficient rainfall.

The grim monsoon forecast comes at a time the Narendra Modi government is battling a rural slowdown after unseasonal rain and hailstorms ravaged farms.

An independent experimental monsoon forecast jointly generated by the IMD and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, has predicted that the overall rainfall during the four-month season from June through September is likely to be 14 per cent below the long-period average.

"Multiple forecasts seem to suggest we're heading for a deficient monsoon," a senior weather scientist with the IMD said. The probability forecasts have assigned zero probability for conditions in which the rainfall will be above normal or excess.

Nearly half the country's farmland lacks irrigation facilities. Although agriculture accounts for just about 15 per cent of the gross domestic product, three-fifths of the population depend on farming for their livelihood.

"It (a poor monsoon) will delay sowing, raise our irrigation costs and could blight our crops," said Dharmendra Kumar, a farmer in Uttar Pradesh.

However, unlike in 2009, when India suffered its worst drought in four decades, the country has a surplus of commodities such as wheat, rice and sugar because of recent bumper harvests. But lower prices and the fate of a single crop can make a life-or-death difference for small farmers.