Which of these will Modi Tackle First?

Riddhi Mukherjee, TIR, 22 May 2013: The mandate is clear. The people of India believe Modi will be the change-agent the country so desperately requires. The clear majority BJP received (282 seats and 336 for NDA) means that they don’t have to worry about last minute alliances and accommodating egos of certain prominent regional leaders – Mamata Banerjee of TMC and Jayalalitha Jayaram of AIADMK. Now it’s time to deliver!

BJP’s election campaign hinged primarily, on the charisma of Narendra Damodardas Modi and his Gujarat model of development. So, development will be the criteria on which the BJP-led NDA government will be judged on over the following months. Time will not be a restraint. Given the complete decimation of Congress, we can expect NDA to stay in power for at least two full terms or ten years. However, the first six months will be crucial. These six months will set the standards by which this government will be appraised over the next five years.

Reviving and resurrecting the economy will be a major challenge for the new government. A lot has been written about it already and so I won’t go into the details here. Instead I want to focus on some of the other challenges Modi will be faced with.

What will the composition of the cabinet be?

Media speculation has been at an all-time high since May 16 regarding the composition of Modi’s cabinet. This will be one of the first challenges that Modi has to contend with. A number of senior leaders, including Sushma Swaraj and L. K. Advani, had been relegated to the background during the election campaigns and the election main. Will these leaders find place in the cabinet? On Tuesday, May 20, the formality of electing Modi as the leader of the BJP parliamentary party was completed. Senior leaders Advani, Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Murli Manohar Joshi, Nitin Gadkari and Venkaiah Naidu were present at this meeting held in the central hall of Parliament.

The choices for each cabinet position will have an impact on the country, but the appointments for top four ministries – home, defence, finance and external affairs – will be most critical. Two key members of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government – Yashwant Sinha and Jaswant Singh – are no longer part of the BJP. All senior BJP leaders will be expecting plum postings, but the challenge in front of Modi is appointing the right person for the right job. Modi might have to take a few tough decisions, like leaving Advani out of the cabinet. How these decisions go down with the RSS and how Modi handles the pressure will be crucial.

In Gujarat, Modi operated with just 7 cabinet ministers and 15 MoS (Ministers of State). He is expected to follow a similar model at the center as well. News reports suggest that he will limit the cabinet strength to 20, and depend heavily on technocrats and bureaucrats. Out of 282 BJP MPs elected to the Lok Sabha 55 have professional degrees and 21 have PhDs. So, Modi will not have to look far for advice on policy formation. For example, the defence minister can rack the brains of a V.K. Singh, who is a former Army General and holds a PhD in Defence Studies. The name of Arun Shorie has been linked with the finance ministry, with some even suggesting that he might be appointed the next finance minister. He was the disinvestment minister during the previous NDA government.

Will Modi be able to implement his motto of “less government, more governance?” He wanted some of the key bureaucrats he worked with in Gujarat to feature prominently at the center. Retired IAS officer K Kailashnathan, who was the principal chief secretary in the CMO, was Modi’s go-to man in Gujarat; he is believed to be on his way to Delhi. A.K. Sharma, the additional principal secretary in the CMO in Gujarat, is also expected to be in Delhi. Both these bureaucrats will be getting semi-political postings.

What Modi needs to realise is that it is possible to keep tabs on every ministry within the state machinery, but at the center individual ministries wield significant power. Will Modi be able to tolerate other power centers within the government? Will he able to coordinate and work with such power centers? This will be decisive in the success or failure of this government.

Will BJP remain a cohesive unit?

During the run-up to the 16th Lok Sabha elections and right through the election campaigns between each of the nine phases, Modi projected a moderate image. Good governance and development were his two key messages to the people. The Hindutva image was relegated to the background. The same cannot be said of the BJP as whole and other members of the Sangh Parivar. For every Modi speech on good governance there was one ridiculous statement by Pramod Mutalik. For every development promise of Modi there was aGiriraj Singh threat. For every anti-corruption speech delivered by Modi there was a hate speech delivered by Praveen Togadia, President of the Vishva Hindu Parishad (VHP). Why this doublespeak? Was it a clever election strategy; an attempt to woo a larger section of the electorate? Or was it an indication of the political and ideological differences breeding underneath?

Contrary to what the BJP would like us to believe, RSS is playing an important role in government formation. The RSS office in Keshav Kunj, New Delhi has been choc-a-block since May 16. Several senior BJP leaders, including Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah have visited the office. What will be the extent of RSS’ powers in the coming days? Even a minor slipup will escalate very fast in the current political situation.

A section of the media and politicians constantly warned us about the possibility of increased hooliganism if BJP came to power. They seem to be correct. Just one day after the election results were declared, a Mangalore-based outfit called NaMo Brigade announced that it had booked flight tickets to Pakistan for renowned author U.R. Ananthamurthy. Ananthamurthy had earlier stated that he didn’t want to live in an India led by Modi. The central leadership had advised all followers to be restrained in their actions while interacting with critics of Modi, but they don’t seem to have listened. Is this just the trailer or as they say in Bollywood “picture abhi baki hai?”

BJP would do well to learn from the mistakes of the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC (Trinamool Congress) government in West Bengal. TMC came to power after an eternity of Left rule in the state. But instead of leading the state towards better days TMC became defensive and ever since intolerance has ruled the roost in the state. Modi needs to ensure that fringe elements within the Sangh Parivar are brought to task for any negative outbursts. Even the harshest critics need to be dealt with finesse and a sense of humour that Modi has displayed during his speeches.

Should minority communities be worried?

Modi’s communal and religious fundamentalist image has altered over the past few years. Now development and economic growth seem to be synonymous with his name. Congress’ one-point agenda during the campaigning phase (and not just Congress) had been instilling fear among the voters regarding communal backlashes if BJP came to power. Are the fears justified? Every political analyst has been harping about the importance of Modi reaching out to the minorities, now that he is in power. However, based on the voting pattern of the minority communities (most prominently the Muslims) it would seem that they aren’t overly worried. In fact, their votes might have been the key in BJP performing beyond expectations in key states like Uttar Pradesh.

The NDA collectively won 39 of the 74 seats where Muslim population accounted for 21 to 95 percent of the electorate. Of these 74 seats 16 were in UP and BJP won all of them. In Bihar of the 9 such seats NDA won 5. Now it is up to Modi to ensure that the faith shown in him by the Muslim voters is not betrayed. Will he able to control the Praveen Togadias of the Sangh Parivar?

Foreign policy challenges

While campaigning in Arunachal Pradesh Modi passed rhetoric criticisms against Chinese expansion across the border. On the flipside, as the CM of Gujarat Modi visited Beijing four times and established positive economic ties that led to increased interest in the state among Chinese investors. Modi’s foreign policy will have to be a fine balance between rhetoric and improving bilateral trade ties. It is believed that Modi is extremely interested in engaging with Japan. Here again he needs to tread with caution, lest Beijing perceive this in negative light.

Pakistan and Bangladesh will both present its set of foreign policy issues. Modi’s speech regarding Bangladeshi immigrants and the treatment of Hindus in the country has already heated things up. The previous NDA government was proactive in establishing cordial relations with Pakistan. Will Modi continue down the same path? Or will he project a tougher stance? Truth be told, a number of voters were impressed by Modi’s nationalist rhetoric and will be expecting him to take concrete steps in tackling cross-border terrorism. Revitalising Indo-US ties should also be high up on his agenda. Will be able to put aside the bitterness of being denied a visa by Washington and work towards developing a constructive relationship?

These are just some of the challenges that Modi will have to deal with right after taking oath of May 26 (work in regards to some are already in flow). Over 100 million of the 800 million eligible voters during the 2014 general elections were first-time voters. Most of them voted for Modi. The youth of the country is currently enamoured by his persona and his go-getter attitude. Now the ball is in Modi’s court. Will he smash it down the line for a winner or commit an unforced error?

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