Modi set to become the PM with BJP-led NDA to bag 234-246 seats: CSDS Opinion Poll

theindianrepublic.com, 5 April 2014, New Delhi: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all set to form the next government, says the CSDS Opinion Poll conducted by CNN-IBN – Lokniti – The Week. The NDA is projected to get 234-246 Lok Sabha seats in the elections while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) will have to satisfy itself with a meagre 111-123.

According to the survey, the BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is propelling the NDA to power at the Centre.

The Seat Tally goes like this:

Party     Seats          2009            Vote Share          2009

NDA      234-246     159                 38 %                 23.6 % 

BJP      206-218      116                35 %                 18.8 %

UPA      111-123      262                28 %                 32.6 %

INC      94-106         206                25 %                 28.6 %

AAP      4-8               NIL                03 %                 NIL

Left      14-20           79                  04 %                 7.6 %

Comparing the results to the 2009 Lok Sabha results, the NDA will almost be doubling its seats while the UPA is set to lose half of its seats. The worse case scenario that the Congress may get less than 100 Lok Sabha seats for the first time in its history. According to election tracker the Congress may get 94-106 Lok Sabha seats on its own.

The Election of numbers and records!

The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats all on its own. This indicates the anti-congress wave that’s there in the country. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

BJP’s sweep-states

The CSDS Survey says that the the BJP is set to get massive gains and sweeping victories across the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, Jharkhand and its Prime Ministerial nominee Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat. Surprisingly the March survey states that the BJP is ahead of the AAP in Delhi as well.

Bad news for the Congress from almost everywhere!

Congress is staring at a huge defeat in almost all of the states, other than Karnataka and Kerala where it is in power at the moment. Therefore, Congress seems to be losing out on a few of its strongholds including Andhra Pradesh. As a matter of fact, Congress might face a decimating defeat in Andhra Pradesh. Even in Telangana with 17 seats, the Congress is not doing well. It is doing well in only two states – Karnataka and Kerala, where it is in power.

TMC Seat Tally Comes as a Surprise for Mamata

Mamata Banerjee led Trinamool Congress (TMC) might emerge as the third largest party after the BJP and the Congress. Mamata is set to win almost 30 seats from her state. The TMC is projected to win 23-29 seats.

How will the NDA form the government?

According to the figures, the BJP-led NDA might simply fall short of 30 to 40 seats, which could be easier to achieve through an alliance. Leaders of various parties are yet to open their cards on a possible pre-poll or a post-poll alliance with the NDA. These include the South strongholds like the AIADMK, DMK, TRS, TDP or even Uttar Pradesh’s regional BSP led by Mayawati.

Interesting facts about this Opinion Poll:

• Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Mamata Banerjee may emerge as the third largest party in India after BJP and Congress
  

BJP is set to make a record by bagging more than 200 seats for the first time ever.

The Congress might face its worst ever defeat provided its seat tally plunges below 100.

35 per cent of Urban voters prefer BJP than 24 per cent who prefer Congress

Both Men and Women voters prefer BJP over Congress

Good news comes in for the BJP even from the rural voters

BJP continues to be ahead of Congress across all economic classes

BJP remains to be a preferred choice among all age groups of voters with a greater number of young voters voting for it.

Among the elderly class, the Congress and the BJP remain neck-to-neck

The total sample size of the Survey was 20957. The social profile of the achieved sample in each state when compared with actual Census figures by and large reflects the representative nature of the sample.