2014 Elections: Mamata to be the king maker?

Hari Hara Sharma, theindianrepublic, 11 March 2014: With first vote to be polled for 2014 elections- the largest ever in the world in terms of huge electorate, greater than the population of Europe  – less than a month away, the political activities have started accelerating. As per latest opinion polls from CNN IBN CSDS, the BJP led NDA is projected to win 212-232Lok Sabha seats(BJP on its own 193-213), Ruling Congress led UPA slipping to 119-139 seats (Congress alone 94-110).  That leaves still around 200 seats to be shared amongst other smaller parties mostly regional. As per the same poll projection, Trinamool Congress (TMC) with 20-28 seats is likely to be the third largest party after BJP & Congress. Much though both the major national parties will like to underplay this, and urge not to ‘waste’ voting for this motley group of parties, this is an electoral reality in  last couple of elections and cannot be wished away. In 2009 elections also, leaving apart alliance partners, Congress and BJP on their own had 317 seats from out of 543 seats

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In the last 6 months, since BJP declared its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, the vote share of the party and seats projected to be won has shown consistent rise. The BJP is now expected to cross 200 mark, which is better than its historical best of 180 seats. Pitted against a Congress regime suffering huge anti- incumbency, graft charges and uncontrolled inflation, he has been able to rally support for a Government that promises growth, development and employment in line with Gujarat Model-the state he has been ruling for 13 years now.
The next few weeks will however not be easy walk over for Mr. Modi and the BJP. As the poll projection of above referred CNN-IBN survey shows between January and February (2014) the vote share and seats projected in favour of NDA have stagnated. Many analysts believe it has peaked out and scope for further improvement is limited.

What may disturb the equations further is the recent & direct attack launched by Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal against both Narendra Modi and Gujarat Model of development on which brand Modi is built. Against Congress with a huge historical baggage, Modi seemed invincible. But he is still struggling for a response to Guerilla warfare right at his door step by a  nimble footed AAP with a list of inconvenient questions questioning crony capitalism and distorted growth model, which cannot be wished away.

In the meanwhile, the third front experiment has been grounded at the take off stage itself with seat sharing between Jayalalitha and Left aborted. The other formation- proposed Federal Front with Mamata Banerjee seems to be having a head start with Jayalalitha cozying to Mamata’s gestures. The chieftains have been distraught with both the national parties and aspire to stand united to represent regional aspirations- allegedly neglected by the national parties. The endorsement of Anna Hazare, the crusader against corruption who aroused the collective conscience of the nation, for Mamata is a feather in her cap.

Going forward, the political process is expected to unfold as follows:
Find chink in BJP armor with more AAP led attacks on Gujarat model and Modi as its leader.

Congress might arrest further decline by alliance management and division in Anti- Congress votes by conflicting claimants.

Consolidation of Non Congress/ Non BJP votes at various states where there are viable other ‘Substitutes/ Alternatives’

(Yogendra Yadav’s terminology) Where does all this lead to in terms of final tally after the elections. Before that, again going back to last Opinion Poll referred above, generally in Poll surveys, the responses are overestimated in favour of the favorites and underestimation of underdogs. The Anti- Incumbency also tends to be underestimated. With these neutralizations,

Where does all this lead to in terms of final tally after the elections. Before that, again going back to last Opinion Poll referred above, generally in Poll surveys, the responses are overestimated in favour of the favorites and underestimation of underdogs. The Anti- Incumbency also tends to be underestimated. With these neutralizations,

BJP may emerge as single largest party with around 200+ seats along with its alliance partners but still short of 60-70 seats from a majority

Congress may emerge as second largest party with around 100+ seats  along with its alliance partners

Others (Non- Congress/ BJP) might garner around say 200+ seats- and in this Trinamool Congress emergeslargest party say with 30 seats followed by the dark horse AAP(10-20 seats as against 1-5 seats being projected by CNN-IBN survey mentioned above.

It is in such a scenario, which is more likely than not, Mamata Banerjee-the original Aam Aurat-with blessings of widely respected Gandhian Anna Hazare, is likely to  play the role of a King maker, if not the King. Earlier the Left parties dominated the third space (Non- Congress/ Non-BJP). Now Left has been left out. This space is now for new emerging sets of players represented by more acceptable forces led by Mamata.